California Resources Corporation heads into its Q1 2026 print today with analysts raising targets, EPS estimates surging, and short sellers retreating — yet options traders have just turned notably more bullish, adding an unusual twist to the setup.
The sharpest signal heading into the report is EPS momentum. CRC ranks in the 95th percentile on 90-day forward EPS momentum and in the 99th percentile on 12-month forward EPS growth — two of the strongest readings across the entire universe. That kind of estimate revision cadence has been matched by a string of analyst target hikes: UBS lifted its target to $82 on April 13, maintaining a Buy rating, while Citigroup raised to $74 from $67 at end of March. The mean target across the Street is now $81.17, roughly 16% above the current price of $70.13. After gaining 5.3% on the week and 3.6% on the month, CRC has been closing the gap to consensus — but upside remains.
Short sellers are not fighting the tape. Short interest has been cut nearly in half since late March, falling from roughly 5.3 million shares to 3.4 million, dropping the SI % of free float to 4.0%. That is a 36% decline over the past month. Borrow conditions are relaxed: cost to borrow is just 0.56%, and availability is extremely wide relative to current short positioning — the 52-week peak utilization was only 18.7%, and the current reading is well below that. The ORTEX short score of 37.5 confirms there is no meaningful short-side pressure building into the print.
Options tell a distinct story. The put/call ratio dropped sharply to 0.53 on Tuesday — about 1.7 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.61. For most of April, the PCR held steadily above 0.62 to 0.65. The sudden shift toward calls on the eve of earnings suggests options traders are positioning for upside rather than hedging against disappointment. Peers moved broadly in line on the week — CHRD, SM, and PR all gained 6-7% — so CRC's 5.3% rise looks in step with the sector rather than idiosyncratic strength.
The print will test whether CRC's operational execution in California — where it is also building out a carbon management business — can sustain the earnings estimate upgrades that have driven most of the analyst enthusiasm, at a P/E of roughly 13x and EV/EBITDA near 4.9x.
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