BigBear.ai has run out of shares to borrow. Availability has dropped to zero — every share in the lending pool is currently lent out. That matches the 52-week peak and creates the tightest borrow conditions the stock has seen all year.
Cost to borrow hit 3.45% on May 5. That's up 117% in one week and up 192% over the past month. The move is sharp and recent — CTB was sitting at 1.59% just ten days ago.
Short interest stands at 28.5% of free float. That's a heavy position. It hasn't moved drastically — up 3.1% week-on-week — but with zero availability left, any new short demand has nowhere to go. The ORTEX short score is 70.9, ranking in the 5th percentile for short pressure across all stocks.
The put/call ratio sits at 0.339. The 20-day average is 0.351. Options traders have been consistently leaning toward calls for weeks — the PCR has trended steadily lower since late March, when it was running above 0.37.
The PCR z-score is -1.04. That's one standard deviation below the mean. It's not extreme, but the direction is clear. Call buyers are becoming more dominant even as the borrow market tightens.
BlackRock added 11.8 million shares in its most recent filing. Vanguard added 5.1 million. Van Eck built a fresh position of 8.6 million shares. These are significant additions from institutional holders.
Insiders have moved the other way. The CEO, CFO, and General Counsel all sold shares at the start of April. The trades were small in dollar terms — all flagged with low significance scores — but the direction is consistent across the C-suite.
BBAI is scheduled to report on May 11. Analysts hold a consensus "hold" rating. The mean price target is $5.33, against a current price of $4.14 — implying roughly 29% upside to target. HC Wainwright carries a Buy at $6.00. Cantor Fitzgerald is Neutral at $5.00. Both firms cut targets in early March after the last earnings cycle.
The last earnings print, in April, moved the stock +3.9% on the day and +7.3% over five days.
What to watch: Whether the zero-availability reading holds into the May 11 earnings print — and whether rising CTB costs begin to pressure short sellers ahead of the report.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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