AVA enters its May 14 earnings call in a strikingly different shape than it did six weeks ago — short sellers have quietly stepped back, analysts remain split near fair value, and options traders are the most cautious they have been in months.
The most striking development is how sharply short positioning has unwound. Short interest, which ran above 4.4% of free float through early April, has fallen to 3.4% — a drop of roughly 25% over the past month. That retreat is not noise. Shares short peaked near the tariff-driven market turbulence in early April and have stepped down in two distinct moves: first from 4.4% to 3.9% around April 23–24, then a second leg lower to the current 3.4% level. The borrow market reflects that ease: cost to borrow is minimal at 0.34%, and availability is extremely loose — lending-pool utilisation sits at just 0.07%, well below its 52-week peak of 5.05%. There is no squeeze risk here, and new shorts face virtually no friction entering or exiting positions.
Options positioning tells a more cautious story and represents the more interesting tension heading into the print. The put/call ratio has climbed to 0.93, above its 20-day average of 0.87. That is not an extreme reading — the 52-week high is 1.02 — but the direction of travel is clear. The ratio has drifted steadily higher since mid-April, when it sat in the 0.77–0.80 range. Options traders appear to be quietly adding downside cover as earnings approach, even as short sellers have been reducing their exposure.
The Street is positioned defensively but not bearishly. Both Barclays and Mizuho updated their views on May 6 — Barclays trimmed its target from $41 to $40 while maintaining Equal-Weight, and Mizuho nudged its target up from $41 to $42 while keeping a Neutral rating. The mean target across analysts sits at $41.83, implying less than 2% upside from the $40.93 close on May 5. That is a tight band. No analyst has a Buy-equivalent rating in the most recent activity. The factor-score backdrop reinforces the neutral lean: EPS momentum over both 30 and 90 days is in the bottom quintile of the universe (scores of 20 and 15 respectively), and forward EPS growth is ranked at just 37. The one standout is dividend strength, with a dividend score in the 98th percentile — a reminder that AVA attracts income-focused holders more than growth-seekers. At 15.3x trailing earnings and 1.2x book, the valuation is not demanding, though the EV/EBITDA of 9.7x has crept up around 0.1x over the past month.
Ownership is heavily passive and stable. BlackRock holds 17.8% of shares and added roughly 581,000 shares in Q1 2026, while Vanguard holds 13.2% and added modestly. There are no signs of activist pressure or meaningful active-manager rotation. Insider activity through March was routine — a cluster of VP-level equity awards and small tax-related sales around March 2, plus a modest sale by CEO Heather Rosentrater of 671 shares. None of that suggests conviction directional activity from insiders ahead of the quarter.
Close peers spent the week in negative territory. BKH and NWE — the two most correlated names to AVA — both fell around 1.9% on the week. DTE was the weakest of the group, down 3.4%. AVA's own 0.7% weekly decline was therefore slightly better than most of its regulated-utility peer set, consistent with a stock where short-covering has provided some underlying support. The next data point to watch is the May 14 earnings call — specifically whether management addresses the pace of capital expenditure recovery ($624M in annual capex against $556M operating cash flow) and any updates to the rate-base growth outlook that underpins the Street's cautious-but-stable consensus.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open AVA on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
