TLT heads into the week with a notable contradiction at its core: short sellers pulled back sharply from April's aggressive positioning, yet the ORTEX short score remains elevated, signalling that bearish conviction on long-duration Treasuries hasn't fully unwound.
Short interest peaked near 122 million shares in early April — a period that coincided with peak tariff anxiety and a violent sell-off in US government bonds. By May 5, that figure had dropped to around 92.8 million, a decline of roughly 24% from the April highs. SI % FF now runs at 16.7% of float. That is still a substantial short base for an ETF, but the direction of travel is clear: bears covered hard after the April dislocation. What's less clear is whether that covering reflects genuine confidence in Treasuries, or simply profit-taking after a disorderly month.
The lending market offers nuance here. Borrow cost is modest at 0.41% annualised and has eased about 6% over the past week — broadly consistent with reduced demand for fresh shorts. Availability, however, has tightened in recent days. The utilisation rate jumped to 41% on May 5, up from 34% at the start of the week and the highest single-day reading since the April 20–22 window, when utilisation briefly spiked to 71% during the most acute phase of the bond market stress. That April spike has since completely unwound, which suggests the borrow market is settling — but the week-end tick higher in utilisation is worth watching.
Options positioning leans slightly more defensive than usual, but not dramatically so. The put/call ratio edged up to 0.63 on May 5, running about 1.3 standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.61. That is a mild tilt toward downside protection rather than a genuine fear signal — the 52-week high on the PCR is 0.81, still well above current levels. The options market is cautious, not alarmed.
The ORTEX short score tells a more persistent story. At 65.2, it has barely moved from where it was at the end of April, even as short interest itself fell sharply. That divergence — short shares declining while the score holds firm — reflects the composite nature of the metric: borrow tightness, availability, and positioning dynamics all feed in alongside raw SI levels. The score briefly touched 69.2 on April 22 during peak stress; the fact that it has settled near 65 rather than retreating toward 60 suggests the bears who remain are more deliberate than the wave who covered.
Institutional ownership is dominated by broker-dealers and wealth platforms using TLT as a duration tool rather than a directional bet. Bank of America holds the largest reported position at 65.7 million shares (12% of outstanding), followed by Northwestern Mutual at 43.1 million. Rafferty Asset Management — the firm behind leveraged Treasury ETFs — trimmed its position by 6.1 million shares through Q1, consistent with repositioning around volatility. BlackRock added 2.5 million shares as recently as April 30. Monthly distributions have held steady: the April payout was $0.34 per share, with May printing at $0.32, reflecting the coupon income passing through from the underlying bond portfolio.
The analyst data attached to this ticker is dated August 2008 and carries no current relevance — it should be disregarded entirely.
The macro backdrop is the variable that dominates everything else here. With the Federal Reserve on hold and the US yield curve responding more to fiscal concerns and foreign demand signals than to rate expectations alone, the next meaningful move in TLT is unlikely to come from within the ETF itself. The key data points to watch are the next Treasury auction results — particularly 20- and 30-year supply — and any shift in Fed communication that changes the terminal rate picture.
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