Forrester Research stepped into its Q1 2026 results already carrying a meaningful short position — and the numbers delivered exactly what the bears needed.
The research firm posted Q1 adjusted EPS of -$0.04, missing the $0.12 consensus by a wide margin. Revenue of $85.5M beat estimates of $83.3M, but the earnings shortfall overshadowed the top-line surprise. More damaging was the guidance revision: management slashed its full-year GAAP EPS range from a loss of $0.10–$0.20 to a loss of $0.63–$0.73 — a cut of more than 50 cents at the midpoint. The adjusted EPS outlook held firm at $0.72–$0.82, and full-year sales guidance was nudged up slightly to $350–360M, but the GAAP miss will do the talking in the near term.
Short interest entered this event at an elevated 7.1% of the free float — a level that warrants attention in a stock trading at $6.21. That short position has grown about 12% over the past month, roughly tracking the 13% bounce the stock made in the same period. Shorts built into strength, and with the GAAP guidance cut now public, the rationale behind that positioning looks well-founded. Over the past week, however, shorts trimmed slightly — short shares fell roughly 0.3% — suggesting some covered ahead of the print rather than piling in. The ORTEX short score of 72.1 ranks in the 3rd percentile of its peer universe on short score rank, flagging this as one of the more aggressively watched names in the sector. Borrow conditions tell a looser story: cost to borrow has eased sharply, dropping more than 30% over the week to just 0.77% APR — well below its recent range of roughly 1.0–1.15%. Availability remains in a normal range. Shorts wanting to add exposure face no meaningful friction in the lending market.
The options market offers little incremental signal here. The put/call ratio of 156 is essentially flat with its 20-day average and carries a z-score near zero — this is an illiquid options market, and the absolute PCR levels reflect the thin open interest base rather than a directional tilt. The prior quarter's earnings print in February offers the clearest context: the stock fell 14.5% the day after results and extended the decline to -10.4% over five days, a pattern that will be top of mind given today's fresh guidance cut.
Institutional ownership is concentrated. Founder and executive chairman George Colony holds roughly 38.5% of shares outstanding. Portolan Capital Management built a fresh position of 1.16M shares as of February, adding 457,000 shares in the reported period. Insider activity from April 1 was largely mechanical — awards accompanied by small net sells at $5.39, consistent with standard RSU vesting programs. The CFO and chief-level officers sold modest amounts alongside their grants, producing a net inflow of ~$172k over 90 days — too small to read as a conviction signal in either direction.
Street coverage on FORR is thin and stale: the only active analyst record is a Barrington Research downgrade to Market Perform from October 2023, when the stock was trading in a very different price context. Any published price targets from that era are not relevant at the current $6 level. The nearest correlated peers — KFY, TNET, and MAN — posted mixed weeks, with MAN down 5.1% and ADP up 5.7%, reflecting broad dispersion across HR and professional services names. FORR's own 0.3% week compresses that comparison, but the post-close earnings reaction will be the dominant variable when trading resumes.
The next notable date is May 12, when management hosts a follow-on event. What to watch: whether the gap between the firm adjusted EPS guidance and the dramatically wider GAAP loss range draws further analyst re-engagement — and whether short sellers who trimmed into the print choose to rebuild now that the catalyst has cleared.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open FORR on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
