ABI just delivered its most rewarding single day in months — and the borrow market has taken notice.
Q1 results dropped on May 5, and they were unambiguously strong. Revenue hit $15.27 billion, up from $13.63 billion in the same period a year earlier. Net income climbed to $2.56 billion from $2.15 billion. The stock responded with a 9.3% jump on the day, extending a monthly gain to over 12% and taking the price to €69.04. It is a clean beat, and AB InBev's EPS surprise ranking sits in the 90th percentile — a signal that the company has made a habit of coming in ahead of expectations, not just in this print.
The borrow market tells a quieter but increasingly pointed story. Lending availability has been tightening steadily for weeks. The utilisation of available lending supply reached its highest level in the past year at 11.3% on May 5, more than triple where it sat at the start of April when it was running below 4%. Cost to borrow has risen in tandem — now at 1.14% annualised, up 66% versus a month ago and carrying its most expensive reading in the recent history visible in the data. Neither figure is alarming in isolation: absolute borrowing costs are still low, and a utilisation of 11% leaves plenty of headroom. But the direction is clear. More shares are being borrowed, and the cost of doing so is creeping higher.
On the Street, the picture is broadly constructive but nuanced. Wells Fargo reiterated Overweight on May 6 and lifted its target to $93 (on the US-listed BUD equivalent). Goldman Sachs kept its Buy rating the same morning. Deutsche Bank reiterated Neutral, which represents the cautious end of a broadly positive analyst chorus. Berenberg and UBS both have Buy-equivalent ratings in place. The mean analyst target circulating in the US market recently cited around $86.50 — well above current trading levels in EUR terms on Euronext Brussels. (Note: the legacy data in the ORTEX snapshot carries a stale 2023 target; the live broker commentary from the past 48 hours is used here instead.) AB InBev's ORTEX short score of 36.4 is unexceptional, ranking in the 41st percentile of peers — it is not a heavily shorted name, and the modest SI level reflects that.
The ownership structure is unusually concentrated. Stichting Anheuser-Busch InBev — the founding family vehicle — controls 34% of shares and has not moved its position. Altria Group holds another 8.2% and is similarly static. Dodge & Cox sits at 4.8%, unchanged. BlackRock is the most active of the large holders, adding 4.8 million shares through to April 30. GQG Partners made the most dramatic move in recent quarters, building a position of 10.4 million shares with net purchases of 7.9 million shares reported through January — a material conviction bet from one of the more active global growth-focused managers.
Across European brewer peers, the week-on-week divergence is striking. CARL B rose 6.9%, broadly matching ABI's momentum. HEIO gained 1.7% and HEIA was flat, while CCEP slipped 2.1%. The fact that ABI outperformed Heineken so sharply, despite Heineken's similarly large global footprint, points to this week's move being earnings-specific rather than a broad sector rotation.
The next earnings date is flagged for July 30 — the Q2 2026 call. Between now and then, the key variable is whether the bullish analyst response to this week's print starts to pull the borrow cost back down, or whether the tightening trend in the lending pool continues even as the stock consolidates near its post-results high.
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