Mativ Holdings reports Q1 2026 results after the close today — and the options market is sending an unusually bullish signal heading into the release.
The clearest pre-earnings read comes from options positioning. The put/call ratio has collapsed to 0.34, more than two standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.45, making this the most call-skewed reading in recent months. Relative to the 52-week range of 0.07 to 0.67, the ratio is running near the bullish end. Call buyers have dominated over the past week, a notable shift from the more balanced positioning that held through most of April.
Short interest offers a more muted backdrop — this is not a heavily contested stock. SI is 2% of the free float, and it edged down roughly 0.4% over the week. The borrow market is loose: cost to borrow has eased to 1.9%, down sharply from a recent intra-month peak of 2.85%, and availability is abundant. The ORTEX short score of 32 sits in the lower half of the range, reinforcing that short sellers are not a meaningful force here. The borrow picture tells a story of limited conviction on either side of the trade.
The stock itself has had a choppy week. MATV closed Tuesday at $9.14, recovering 3.7% on the day but still down 6.2% on the week. That divergence — a strong daily bounce into a weak weekly tape — is consistent with positioning ahead of a catalyst. Correlated peers had a notably better week: gained 8.7%, rose 8.5%, and surged 8.4%, leaving MATV as a clear underperformer among commodity chemicals names over the five-day stretch. The gap may reflect earnings-specific uncertainty holding the stock back while the sector broadly recovered.
Analyst coverage is thin and the most recent data is borderline stale. The only active rating on the books is a Buy with a $10 target from Stifel, filed in late March 2025 — more than a year ago — after a simultaneous upgrade and target cut from $15.50. With zero buy-consensus analysts listed and a mean price target of $21 that predates the stock's significant decline, the Street picture offers limited guidance. What the factor scores do show is notable: the EPS surprise percentile ranks at 99 — meaning Mativ has a near-flawless recent history of beating estimates. That data point matters more heading into today's print than any stale target.
On the institutional side, the holding base is stable rather than in flux. BlackRock holds 11.2% and recently added a small position. Vanguard and Allspring Global each hold roughly 7%, with Allspring adding ~106k shares in the latest quarter. American Century is a more active mover, adding over 500k shares to reach 4.2% — the largest recent addition in the top-15. Insider activity over the past 90 days nets out to modest selling: the CEO sold ~$758k worth of shares in March following a large award, a pattern consistent with tax-driven award-related disposals rather than a directional statement.
The Q4 2025 print gives some context for what the market might tolerate. Q4 revenue came in at $463 million, roughly flat year-over-year, but net income swung to $100.8 million from $1.5 million the prior year — driven by what appears to be a divestiture-related gain. The full year told a harder story: a $337 million net loss against $48.7 million the year prior, and an EPS loss of $6.19. With the stock near $9 and that fundamental backdrop, today's Q1 release is as much about management's commentary on the restructured portfolio as it is about any single quarterly number.
The key watch is whether Q1 numbers and guidance can justify what options traders have been pricing in — a 99th-percentile beat track record is a high bar, and the call-skewed setup means any disappointment has room to unwind quickly.
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