Uber Posts Strong Quarter, Stock Slips Anyway

UBER entered its Q1 2026 print with options traders bracing for a move — and while the numbers came in better than feared, the stock still drifted lower.

The clearest signal ahead of results was in options. The put/call ratio climbed to 1.20 on May 5, just below the 52-week high of 1.204 and running nearly 1.6 standard deviations above its 20-day average of 1.10. That was the most defensive posture the options market had taken all year. It proved partially prescient: the stock fell 1.3% on the day and closed the week at $72.95, down 1.6% over five sessions. The post-earnings session on May 4 had already logged a 2.9% drop — the only earnings-day reaction in the recent history provided — suggesting the market's instinct to hedge was not entirely wrong.

The quarter itself was genuinely strong. Q1 gross bookings rose 21% year-on-year, trips grew 20% to 3.6 billion, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.72 beat the $0.70 consensus. Revenue of $13.2 billion came in just below the $13.3 billion estimate — the only visible miss in an otherwise clean print. Non-GAAP EPS grew 44% year-on-year, more than twice the pace of bookings growth, driven by insurance cost savings and operating leverage. Reported net income fell sharply to $263 million from $1.78 billion a year ago, but that comparison is distorted by equity-related gains in the prior period. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi flagged the return of $3 billion to shareholders through buybacks in the quarter — a record — and guided Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.78-$0.82 against the $0.79 consensus, roughly in line.

Short interest is not the story here. Shorts cover just 2.65% of the free float — a low reading by almost any standard — and the position has been trending down. Estimated shares short peaked near 60 million in mid-April before falling roughly 8% to around 55 million. Borrowing costs are negligible at 0.41%, and availability is loose. The short score of 34 reflects a market where bears are not pressing the stock aggressively. The week-on-week change in short interest was essentially flat, down less than 0.02%.

The Street is broadly constructive, though target prices have been drifting lower over the past three months. The mean price target sits near $104, implying roughly 43% upside to the current price. UBS trimmed its target by $1 to $110 on May 1 while keeping a Buy rating — a marginal move, not a change in direction. Guggenheim held at $125 and Citizens reiterated Market Outperform at $100. The bull case centres on Uber's platform compounding: over 50 million Uber One members growing at 50% annually, 30-plus autonomous vehicle partners, and Uber Reserve's expansion into hotel bookings via an Expedia partnership announced at the "GO-GET" event last week. The bear case points to autonomous competition — particularly Waymo's fleet expansion — and the heavy investment required to sustain international delivery growth, both of which constrain near-term margin expansion. EPS momentum scores rank in the 71st percentile on a 30-day basis and 64th percentile over 90 days, reflecting estimates that have been moving in the right direction. The EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed to 12.8x over the past month, down from the 30-day-prior level.

Institutional holders are adding, not exiting. Vanguard holds 9.45% of shares outstanding, BlackRock 7.59%, and Capital Research 6.55% — each adding modestly in the most recent reported period. The most notable new-ish holder on the list is Pershing Square Capital Management with a 1.48% stake. The AV deployment roadmap — targeting up to 15 cities by year-end, with AV Mobility trips growing more than 10x year-on-year — is the growth angle that institutions will focus on most closely at current multiples.

Closest peers diverged on the week. LYFT slipped 0.9% over the same five sessions, while GRAB fell 4.7%. With UBER's Q1 now digested, the next focus point is whether the Q2 guidance range — and the AV city-count expansion — hold up as Waymo's commercial footprint continues to grow.