Palantir Slips Post-Earnings as Analyst Targets Diverge

The bull case rests on growth momentum. EPS momentum ranks in the 93rd percentile on a 30-day basis and 82nd percentile over 90 days. The company reported 137% year-over-year commercial revenue growth in Q4 2025, and the $185 billion Golden Dome contract has given the government segment a headline number to wave at skeptics. Bears point to concentration risk — a handful of large contracts dominate revenue — and to a valuation that demands perfection. The P/E multiple runs at roughly 83x, and EV/EBITDA near 60x, both of which have compressed meaningfully over the past 30 days as the stock has pulled back. The EV/EBITDA multiple is down more than 12 points over the month. That multiple compression may be why bulls are seeing a better entry — but the bear view is that compression still has further to go.

Short positioning has ticked higher after the earnings reaction, though the overall level remains modest. SI % FF climbed to 2.55% on May 5, up from 2.29% a month ago — a steady grind rather than an aggressive bet. The borrow market reflects that: cost to borrow is running at a very low 0.38%, and the lending pool remains extremely loose, well above any threshold that would suggest squeeze pressure. Short availability has not tightened at any meaningful level. This is not a stock where shorts are stretched or crowded — the incremental rise in SI looks more like tactical hedging after the earnings drop than a fundamental conviction trade. The ORTEX short score of 30.4 (out of 100) confirms the same: bearish pressure exists but is not building to an extreme.

Options positioning reinforces the cautious but not panicked read. The put/call ratio is running at 1.07, almost exactly in line with its 20-day average of 1.08, and the z-score of -0.22 signals no meaningful deviation from recent norms. At the 52-week level, the PCR has ranged from 0.61 to 1.16 — the current reading places it in the upper half of that range, consistent with a market that's hedging but not alarmed. Peer context adds colour: APP gained 6.5% on the week and CRWD rose 4.7%, while PLTR fell 3.7%. The divergence suggests the post-earnings selling was stock-specific rather than a sector-wide rotation.

Ownership data carries one notable detail. Co-founder Peter Thiel trimmed his position by 2 million shares as of early April. CEO Alexander Karp added modestly — roughly 482,000 shares — over the same period. These are large pools relative to insider data, but the net 90-day figure across all insiders runs to a positive 2.67 million shares, suggesting selling has not dominated at the company level. Director Alex Moore conducted a series of scheduled sales at prices in the $135–$153 range during March and April, all at low significance scores, consistent with a pre-planned trading programme.

With next earnings set for June 3, the question is whether six weeks is enough time for the valuation re-rating debate to settle. The business fundamentals scores — EPS momentum, EPS surprise — sit in the top quartile of the universe. The valuation scores, by contrast, rank near the bottom, with the EV/EBIT factor in the 4th percentile. That is the tension the June print will either widen or begin to close.