TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. reported first-quarter 2026 results after the close on May 6 — a miss on both earnings and revenue — arriving into a market where short sellers have been quietly retreating for weeks and the stock has just clawed back over 7% in a month.
The most striking move in the data isn't the earnings miss itself. It's the dramatic reversal in short positioning. Estimated short interest has fallen roughly 30% over the past month, dropping from around 3.7 million shares in early April to under 2.5 million by May 5. The break came sharply around April 23, when shares outstanding on loan dropped by more than a million in a single session. That sudden exit pulled the ORTEX short score down from the high 70s — where it sat on April 22-23 — to 67.6 now, a meaningful easing of bearish pressure. The stock's 3% gain on the week and 7.7% rebound over the past month tells the same story: shorts covered as the price firmed.
Borrow conditions corroborate the retreat. Cost to borrow has fallen sharply — from above 18% annualised in late March to 9.4% now, roughly half the level it commanded six weeks ago. That is a clear signal that demand for borrowed shares has eased as short sellers unwound. Availability has loosened in parallel. Borrow availability, which measures the ratio of shares still available to lend versus those already out on loan, now points to a more comfortable pool for any new shorts who want to establish positions. Options positioning supports the calmer read: the put/call ratio runs at 0.43, slightly below its 20-day average of 0.45 and well off the 52-week high of 2.07. There is no meaningful hedging pressure in the options market right now.
The Street view, however, remains cautious — and the Q1 miss does nothing to help. Analysts have spent the past several months trimming targets without changing ratings. Piper Sandler lowered its target to $5.50 from $6.00 in early April while holding Neutral. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods and Wells Fargo both cut targets in March, with Wells sitting at an Underweight and a $5.00 target — below where the stock trades today at $5.48. The consensus mean target of $6.375 implies modest upside from current levels, but that figure has been drifting lower for months. Q1 EPS of $0.23 missed the $0.24 estimate; revenue of $22.8 million missed $23.4 million. For a BDC where income consistency is the whole investment case, a miss — even a small one — reinforces why the Street has been reluctant to lift targets. The price-to-book multiple of 0.64x tells the same story: the market is pricing TPVG at a meaningful discount to net asset value, reflecting ongoing concern about the quality of its venture lending book.
One constructive thread in the ownership picture is the manager itself. TriplePoint Capital LLC, the investment manager and largest holder at just under 5% of shares, was buying consistently through late December into January — accumulating roughly 188,000 shares across nine sessions at prices in the $6.40-$6.70 range. Those purchases, now some months old, were made well above the current price, meaning the manager is sitting on paper losses. That context matters: it suggests the buying was conviction-driven rather than opportunistic, but it also means the support level it appeared to be defending has not held. Close peers had a constructive week: HTGC rose nearly 5.9%, GLAD gained 4.3%, and TSLX added 3.1% — all outpacing TPVG's 3.2% weekly advance, which itself faded with a 2.3% decline on the day Q1 results landed.
The next focus point is how the earnings call commentary shapes expectations for net investment income in Q2 — particularly whether management addresses the portfolio credit quality concerns that have driven the persistent analyst target-cutting over recent months.
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