DAVE just delivered a beat-and-raise quarter and still dropped 5% on the day. That gap between the fundamental story and the price reaction is the tension that defines this week's note.
Q1 earnings landed after the close on May 5, topping EPS estimates by $0.97 and beating on revenue. Management lifted full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $16.25–$16.75 from the prior $14.00–$15.00, and raised revenue guidance to $710M–$720M against a Street consensus that was sitting around $687M. The print, by any measure, was strong. The stock disagrees — at least for now.
The analyst community responded quickly and constructively. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised its price target to $340 (from $330) while maintaining Outperform, and Citizens lifted its target to $365 (from $335) while keeping a Market Outperform rating — both actions filed the morning of May 6. With the mean target across the coverage group at $337.88, the stock's close at $263.81 implies roughly 28% upside to consensus. The direction of travel among analysts has been consistently higher through 2026, with no downgrades in the recent activity. Barrington Research, holding firm at $290 with an Outperform, represents the more conservative end of a uniformly bullish analyst panel.
Short interest has been unwinding steadily, and it tells a story that leans away from the bearish read. SI fell nearly 7% on the week to 9.2% of free float, and is down 27% over the past month — the most sustained unwind in the trailing 30-day window. Back in early April, short interest was running close to 1.8 million shares; it is now around 1.1 million. Cost to borrow is negligible at 0.57%, barely changed on the week, and borrow availability is wide open at roughly 405% of short interest — meaning there is no structural squeeze pressure in this name. The ORTEX short score has also eased from above 57 in late April to 54.6, reinforcing the picture of a less contested position rather than a building bear thesis.
Options positioning, however, shifted meaningfully heading into earnings. The put/call ratio reached 0.62 on May 5 — a 52-week high for DAVE and well above its 20-day average of 0.43. That is roughly 1.2 standard deviations above the mean, a notable rise from the PCR readings in the 0.19–0.23 range that dominated through mid-April. The pattern is clear: call activity dominated through most of April as the stock ran 53% higher over the month, then hedging activity picked up sharply in the final week before the print. Whether that reflects caution about the guidance narrative or simple mechanical hedging against a large gain is ambiguous — but the shift was real.
Institutional ownership adds texture to the bull case. CEO Jason Wilk holds nearly 11% of shares. BlackRock added 127K shares in Q1 to reach 6.8% of shares outstanding. Vanguard, Geode, Dimensional, and American Century all added positions in Q1. Jane Street, which roughly doubled its disclosed position to 4.8% of shares as of April 20, is the most notable recent mover among the disclosed holders. The concentration of index and active buyers building exposure through the early part of 2026 suggests institutional demand was part of the fuel behind April's 53% run.
The bear case, per analyst commentary, centres on competitive pressure in fintech, the uncertain revenue contribution from the new Pay in 4 product, and the incremental investment cycle the company has flagged for 2027. With peers SOFI and UPST both down on the week — SOFI off 12.7%, UPST off 5.1% — the sector backdrop is not offering much lift. The next scheduled earnings event is June 2. Between now and then, how the stock digests the post-earnings gap-down against a constructive guidance revision — and whether the PCR retreats toward its April norms — is the read that will define the next leg.
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