Kyivstar heads into earnings with shorts unwinding and a Starlink deal in play

KYIV enters its May 12 earnings call with momentum firmly on its side. The stock has climbed 22% over the past month and 7.4% in the past week alone, closing at $12.47. The catalyst is real: this week the company announced authorisation to resell Starlink services to Ukrainian businesses — a headline that directly expands its addressable market.

The short-side story underscores just how one-sided the recent move has been. After peaking near 1.76 million shares short in early April, the position has unwound sharply. Estimated short interest has dropped roughly 25% from its April highs to around 1.33 million shares. Because float data is unavailable for KYIV at this time, a precise short interest percentage of free float cannot be calculated, but the direction of travel is clear: shorts have been covering into the rally. Cost to borrow has also eased, from a peak of around 10.4% in late March to 6.1% today — meaningful relief, though still elevated enough to signal that not all bears have exited. Borrow availability is comfortable at roughly 222% of estimated short interest, meaning supply of lendable shares is ample relative to the outstanding position. The ORTEX short score nudged higher to 54.6 on May 5 — just above neutral — after dipping to 47 a week ago, a modest signal that some fresh short conviction is trickling back in even as the overall position remains much leaner than it was a month ago.

Options traders are leaning heavily bullish, amplifying the picture. The put/call ratio is 0.072, fractionally below its 20-day average of 0.077, and close to its 52-week low. Calls vastly outnumber puts. The z-score is slightly negative at -0.69, confirming that the relative demand for downside protection is below trend — an options market that is not hedging into the earnings event.

The fundamental backdrop gives the bulls something to work with. Valuation is undemanding: the stock trades at a P/E of 8.4x and an EV/EBITDA of 4.2x. Both multiples have expanded modestly over the past month — the P/E is up about 1.5 turns in 30 days — suggesting the re-rating is still in its early stages. The sole analyst initiation on file came from Barclays in early April, with an Overweight rating and a $12.50 target. With the stock now trading above that level, the target is effectively in-the-money, and any updated guidance from the May 12 call could prompt a fresh assessment from the Street. The parent, VEON Ltd., which holds 83.5% of shares, recently announced it has exceeded its $1 billion Ukraine investment commitment by 30% — ahead of schedule — lending credibility to the growth story underpinning Kyivstar's expansion.

Prior earnings history offers limited but instructive context. The November 2025 print sent the stock up 12.2% on the day and a further 5.3% over the following week. The March 2026 print produced a softer 4.1% single-day gain before giving back ground over five days. Two reactions, two distinct outcomes — the stock has shown it can move meaningfully, in either direction, on results.

With a Starlink resale deal announced days before the print, a short position that has unwound sharply, and calls dominating the options book, the May 12 release is set up as a test of whether the operational story justifies the month's rapid re-rating.