CTRI heads into the post-earnings session carrying its biggest month-long run in recent memory — up 39% over the past month and 17% on the week alone — after blowing past first-quarter estimates on both revenue and earnings.
The headline numbers were striking. Q1 sales came in at $723 million against a $616 million consensus, a beat of nearly 17%. Adjusted EPS landed at -$0.02, well ahead of the -$0.07 estimate. Management held full-year 2026 revenue guidance at $3.15B–$3.45B, bracketing the $3.36B Street consensus. For an infrastructure services company that went public less than two years ago, that's an unusually clean beat-and-hold combination. The stock's 5.8% gain on May 5 — the day before the report — pointed to some pre-positioning, with ORTEX flagging Centuri among the top industrials names drawing whale-level options activity that session.
The positioning story is notably unbothered. Short interest runs at just 2.8% of free float, down 6.5% over the past month and off a further 2.2% on the week. Borrow availability is generous — the lending pool is far from tight. Cost to borrow sits at 0.47%, up 17% on the week but still well within the range of the past six weeks and nowhere near a level that signals meaningful short conviction. The options market tells a similar story: the put/call ratio has actually drifted lower this week to 0.031, below its 20-day average, pointing to call-heavy flow and not a hedge-heavy crowd. The ORTEX short score has edged down from a brief peak near 35 in late April to 32.9 — directionally easing, not building.
The Street still looks anchored below where the stock is now trading. The most recent analyst moves, both from Wells Fargo and Cantor Fitzgerald in late March and April, maintained Overweight ratings with targets in the $32–$37 range. The stock closed Tuesday at $41.58 — materially above all published price targets. JPMorgan has an Underweight with a $22 target, a position that looks increasingly uncomfortable after a 39% monthly move. The P/E multiple has expanded sharply, climbing roughly 14 points over the past month to 52x, and EV/EBITDA has moved to 17x. These are not cheap infrastructure multiples, though the revenue beat suggests the earnings denominator may have room to grow.
Institutional holders add an interesting backdrop. Icahn Capital holds 14.2% of shares, a significant stake that has been present since at least year-end 2025. BlackRock added 1.24 million shares through April, bringing its position to 6.6% — the most recent institutional build among the top holders. D.E. Shaw more than doubled its holding to 3.8% in the period ending December. The concentration of active managers with clear conviction, alongside the Icahn anchor, gives the shareholder register a different character from most mid-cap industrials — any shift in those positions would move the stock.
Close peers surged this week alongside Centuri. STRL rocketed 71% on the week — the standout in the group — while MYRG added 42%, PRIM 20%, and PWR 22%. The broader infrastructure services cohort has clearly been re-rated as a group, though Centuri's specific earnings beat adds an idiosyncratic layer to its 17% weekly gain.
What to watch now is whether analyst price targets catch up to current levels and whether the institutional concentration — Icahn in particular — shows any change heading into the next 13F filing window.
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