Six Flags Heads Into Earnings With Bears in Charge

Six Flags Entertainment reports Q1 2026 results tomorrow with nearly one in five shares of its float sold short — and JP Morgan warning investors to stay away.

Short interest is the defining tension heading into this print. At 19.5% of the free float, roughly 19.75 million shares are borrowed against the stock. That level has been easing gradually — down about 3% over the past month as the peak of 20.4 million shares in late March has slowly unwound — but it remains extremely elevated. The ORTEX short score is 74.9, placing the stock in the 5th percentile of all names by short-score rank. That score has been remarkably stable, hovering between 74.6 and 75.5 for two weeks, suggesting bears have not rushed for the exits despite the stock's 8% gain over the past month.

The borrow market tells a more nuanced story. Cost to borrow is just 0.55% annually — near the cheapest it has been in the past six weeks, down from 0.77% in late March. Availability has loosened materially too, with the borrow pool now well-supplied relative to late March and early April when lending conditions were tighter. That means adding short exposure into tomorrow's report remains low-cost, even if the absolute short count is heavy. Options positioning is roughly neutral: the put/call ratio is 0.99, fractionally above its 20-day mean of 0.95 and less than one standard deviation stretched — there is no unusual options-driven hedging ahead of the event.

The Street is split, but the directional lean is cautious. The consensus mean price target is $23.67, implying roughly 30% upside from the current $18.13 — but that figure papers over real disagreement. JP Morgan's Matthew Boss raised his target this morning, the day before earnings, from $14 to $16 while reaffirming an Underweight rating: even after the lift, Boss's target sits below where the stock is trading. That is a pointed message. Guggenheim trimmed its Buy target from $33 to $29 in April. Oppenheimer cut from $40 to $26 in late March. The bulls have not abandoned ship — Mizuho and Truist both carry positive ratings with targets in the $25–$27 range — but target compression has been the dominant trend since the start of the year. The EV/EBITDA multiple is 8.4x, up slightly over the past 30 days as the stock has recovered from April lows, but the company remains loss-making on a reported P/E basis. EPS surprise ranks in the 96th percentile of the universe, meaning Six Flags has consistently beaten estimates — a factor worth keeping in mind as the company heads into a seasonally weak Q1.

The institutional shareholder base adds another layer of interest. BlackRock holds 15.1% of shares and added 327,000 shares through April. Vanguard added nearly 500,000 shares through March. But the activist-adjacent holders are the more notable presence: Sachem Head, H Partners, and Jana Partners collectively hold around 13.5% of shares. With several of these names steady or barely changed in recent filings, there is no obvious institutional catalyst in the data. Insiders sold in a coordinated fashion on February 23rd — the COO, CFO, and multiple senior VPs all sold at $18.24 — in what appears to have been a structured disposition programme near current price levels.

The last time Six Flags reported quarterly earnings, the stock jumped 12.5% on the day and added a further 6% over the following week. That was February 19, off a lower base. Days to cover now stand at 11.8, meaning a sharp upside surprise could create pressure on short-holders who face more than two weeks of average volume to fully exit. With JP Morgan on the tape with a sub-market target this morning and nearly a fifth of the float still borrowed, tomorrow's number is less about whether the new management team is making progress and more about whether Q1 trends — attendance, per-capita spend, weather impact — are enough to dent a short thesis that remains firmly in place.