MET reports Q1 2026 results today having done something unusual in a volatile spring market — rallied 13% in a month to close at $80.16.
The price move is the standout. MET gained 13.3% over the past month, dwarfing the week's more modest 1.5% nudge higher. That recovery has pulled the RSI to 66, comfortably into overbought territory. Analysts still see further room to run: the consensus mean price target is $89.75, implying roughly 12% upside from current levels. But the rally itself is now part of the story — MET must validate the move today.
The short-selling community has been retreating, not adding pressure. Short interest dropped roughly 12.5% between mid-April and late April, from around 14 million shares to just over 12 million, and now represents less than 2% of the free float. That pullback in shorts coincided almost exactly with the stock's price recovery, suggesting bears were already covering as MET rebounded. Borrow costs remain trivial at 0.44%, and the availability of shares to borrow is ample, with a cost-to-borrow that has also eased 14% on the week. There is no squeeze pressure here and no material short-seller conviction against the company.
Options positioning is conspicuously neutral — and that is itself a data point. The put/call ratio of 1.44 is virtually in line with its 20-day average of 1.45, producing a z-score near zero. For an insurance name that carried a PCR above 1.70 as recently as early April — when macro fears were at their peak — the reversion to the mean says the hedging frenzy has passed. Investors have largely unwound the protective put positions they piled on during the tariff-driven sell-off. What remains is a more balanced book going into the number. On the analyst side, most recent activity trims targets without changing conviction: B of A, Mizuho, Wells Fargo, and Barclays all lowered targets in April while maintaining positive ratings, and UBS moved in the opposite direction, raising its target to $102. The broad message from the Street is that the thesis remains intact but uncertainty around macro and credit markets warranted modest recalibration.
One factor worth flagging is the forward earnings picture. The 12-month forward EPS growth estimate ranks in the 92nd percentile of the universe — a powerful signal that analysts expect a meaningful acceleration in earnings. EPS momentum over the past 30 days scores in the 63rd percentile, suggesting forward estimates have been inching upward. The EPS surprise rank of just 23, however, means the historical track record of beating consensus is relatively modest — which adds a layer of interest to a quarter where positioning is relaxed and bar-setting is active. The print will test whether Q1 results can underpin a forward earnings trajectory that the market has increasingly priced in — and justify the 13-point rally that preceded them.
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