Cognex heads into today's Q1 2026 print riding one of its sharpest rallies in recent memory — and options traders are leaning hard into the upside.
The most striking signal in the data is the call-side dominance in options. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.15, more than two standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.18, placing it near the most bullish extreme of the past year. Calls are overwhelming puts at a rate that is exceptional even by Cognex's typically call-skewed standards — the 52-week low on PCR is 0.055, so there is still room to run, but the current reading is firmly in "risk-on" territory. That bullishness has been building all week as the stock tacked on 16% over seven sessions and 27% over the past month to close at $62.26.
The bull case rests on two pillars: a strong prior print and recovering forward estimates. Last quarter, Cognex delivered 18% revenue growth to $277 million, beat guidance, and grew EBITDA 67% year-on-year to $68.8 million. Free cash flow hit $86 million, up from $56 million a year earlier. Forward EPS expectations rank in the 94th percentile for year-on-year growth, suggesting the Street has materially re-rated the earnings trajectory. Goldman Sachs lifted its target to $68 after the February print, maintaining Buy, while Barclays and Keybanc followed with similar upgrades. The bear pushback centres on automotive exposure — roughly 22% of 2024 sales — where European project activity has slowed and customer order deferrals have not fully cleared. Truist Securities trimmed its target to $50 in April while staying at Hold, a signal that at least one corner of the Street thinks the recent rally has stretched the risk-reward. At a trailing P/E of 43.6x and EV/EBITDA of 34.9x, valuations have expanded sharply alongside the price move.
Short interest is not a meaningful part of the story heading into this print. At 2.9% of the free float, it is modest, and the borrow market confirms there is no squeeze dynamic at work. Cost to borrow is running below 0.5% — cheap enough to be effectively irrelevant — and availability remains wide, with the lending pool nowhere near tapped. The ORTEX short score of 33.9 sits in the lower half of the universe. The one wrinkle worth noting: short interest has climbed about 26% over the past month, building through late April. That is not alarming at these absolute levels, but it does hint that some participants used the rally to initiate fresh short positions rather than covering into strength.
The prior two earnings reactions offer a meaningful contrast: last quarter's print produced a 3.3% one-day gain that extended to nearly 16% over five days. The print before that went the other way — down 2.7% on the day and off 4.5% over the week. With options traders overwhelmingly positioned for continuation and the stock already up sharply from the lows, today's report is ultimately a test of whether the operational recovery story can justify multiples that have re-rated aggressively ahead of the numbers.
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