TKO heads into its May 7 earnings call riding a sharp reversal in fortunes — Q1 revenue nearly doubled year-over-year, the stock gained 9.3% on the day, and short sellers are quietly retreating.
The result itself is the standout. Taseko reported Q1 2026 sales of CAD 237.09 million, up from CAD 139.15 million in Q1 2025 — a 70% jump driven by surging copper production. Net income flipped from a CAD 28.56 million loss to a CAD 16.84 million profit. Basic EPS came in at CAD 0.05 against a CAD 0.09 loss a year earlier. The earnings per share reading was a miss against one set of estimates, depending on which consensus is used, but the revenue trajectory and the profitability swing tell the more important story. The forward EPS momentum score ranks in the 92nd percentile, reflecting how sharply analyst earnings forecasts have risen over the past year.
Short interest is not a meaningful pressure point here. At 1.74% of free float — roughly 6.3 million shares — the short position has been drifting lower over the past month, down about 6%. The cost to borrow has collapsed, halving in a week to just 0.56% annualised. Borrow availability is wide open. None of this signals a crowded short or any acute squeeze dynamic; the borrow market is simply relaxed.
Institutional ownership adds an interesting backdrop. L1 Capital holds a 9.7% stake and added nearly 14.9 million shares in the December quarter alone, making it the dominant outside shareholder by a wide margin. Mirae Asset and Connor, Clark & Lunn also added meaningfully. Against that, insiders were net sellers through February and March — the CFO and several vice presidents trimmed positions at prices between CAD 10 and CAD 12, while a director sold in mid-March near CAD 8.56. The net 90-day insider balance is still positive in share terms, but the pattern of individual sales near recent highs is worth noting as the stock pushes back toward those levels. Canaccord raised its price target to CAD 14.00 in late April, providing external validation of the bullish copper thesis ahead of the print.
The Q1 2026 call on May 7 is less about whether the copper ramp is real — the revenue figures confirm it is — and more about whether management can articulate a cost and capital structure that justifies sustaining current margins as copper price volatility continues.
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