Cactus, Inc. reports Q1 2026 results today with options traders notably less hedged than usual — an unusual posture for earnings day in a sector under macro pressure.
The clearest positioning signal is the put/call ratio, which has actually eased heading into the print. At 0.52, it runs below its 20-day average of 0.57, and the z-score of -0.85 confirms options flow has tilted toward calls rather than downside protection. That's a meaningful shift: through late April, the PCR was running closer to 0.67-0.69 before dropping sharply in early May. The borrow market tells a similarly relaxed story. Short interest is 5.6% of the free float — meaningful but not extreme — and availability is loose, with the lending pool well-supplied relative to what's borrowed. Cost to borrow has eased roughly 12% over the past month to under 0.45%, well off levels that would signal any squeeze pressure. The stock closed at $54.51, up 14% over the past month despite a modest 2.3% pullback on the week, outperforming most peers: INVX dropped 5.2% on the week, CLB fell 15%, and WFRD slid 1.5%, while and were roughly flat.
The analyst community has been constructive, though the most recent moves date to early March. Citigroup lifted its target to $63 and Barclays raised to $62, both maintaining positive ratings — suggesting the Street upgraded conviction after the prior earnings cycle. Piper Sandler initiated in February with an Overweight and a $73 target. Against a current price of $54.51 and a mean target near $58, the consensus implies modest upside. The bull case centres on the SPC acquisition reshaping the Pressure Control segment — pushing international revenue exposure from 5% to roughly 45% — alongside strong EBITDA margins near 33% and SafeDrill market share gains. Bears point to the harder numbers: operating income fell more than 21% year-over-year in the most recent quarter, revenue contracted 10%, and management guided for a low-double-digit decline in Spoolables for Q4 2025. The forward EPS growth score ranks in the 71st percentile, suggesting the Street still sees recovery ahead even if the recent trend has been weak.
Past prints have not been kind to the stock in the near term. The February 2026 earnings event was followed by a 6.9% one-day drop and a 12.6% five-day loss. The most recent Q1 release in April drew only a 0.3% one-day move, though the five-day drift was still negative at -2.5%. The institutional register remains anchored: BlackRock holds 14.4% and Vanguard 10.9%, with Wellington adding roughly 659,000 shares as of February and Wasatch building nearly 596,000 shares through March — a sign that active managers have been buying into weakness rather than retreating.
Today's print will test whether the SPC integration and international expansion narrative is gaining traction fast enough to offset the continued weakness in U.S. land activity — and whether margins can hold at a level the Street finds reassuring given the guidance headwinds already flagged.
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