Nutrien reports its Q1 2026 results today with short sellers clearly not the story — but price action and a divergence between the stock and its peers make the setup worth watching.
The lending market tells a low-conviction bear story. Short interest runs at just 0.46% of the free float, down about 25% over the past month, and availability is extremely wide — lending supply dwarfs what is currently borrowed. Cost to borrow has dropped sharply, falling roughly 45% on the week to 0.53%, after running as high as 2.69% in late March. The ORTEX short score of 26.4 places Nutrien firmly outside the heavily-shorted camp. This is not a stock the bears have been building positions in.
The divergence worth flagging is in price action relative to peers. Nutrien fell 4.2% on Wednesday and is down about 4% over the past month — while close fertilizer peers told a different story on the day. CF Industries gained 1.7%, Mosaic added 1.3%, and Intrepid Potash rose nearly 2%. added 2.9%. That NTR underperformed its peer group ahead of the print suggests some stock-specific caution, rather than a broad sector move.
On the fundamental picture, consensus EPS estimates point to roughly $0.55 per share for the quarter, against consensus revenue near $5.3 billion. The EV/EBITDA multiple has eased nearly 0.23 turns over the past 30 days, pointing to modest de-rating pressure even as the stock gained 25% year-to-date before Wednesday's slide. The P/E has compressed about 1.1 turns over the same period, to roughly 14x — not demanding territory for a company where EPS momentum ranks in the 76th percentile on a 30-day basis. The dividend score ranks in the top 91st percentile, reflecting a strong yield history, though formal dividend data runs stale from 2022 and should be verified separately.
Institutional ownership is broad and stable — BlackRock, Vanguard, and Wellington among the largest holders — with no single owner making a dramatic move in the most recent filings. Insider activity from March was largely award-related, with parallel routine sells at vest; no open-market buying by C-suite. The Q1 print will test whether Nutrien's earnings delivery and forward guidance on potash volumes and pricing justify a stock that has outpaced the broad market in 2026, even as it has quietly lagged its sector peers in recent sessions.
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