Gold Royalty Corp. heads into today's results with its most prominent shareholder accelerating purchases — and analysts finally converging on the same direction.
The most striking feature of the setup is ownership, not short positioning. Tether Holdings has been buying steadily and recently. In late April and early May alone, it added roughly 413,000 shares across two sessions at prices near $3.44–$3.45. Over the past 90 days, net insider buying totalled 3.5 million shares worth nearly $15 million. Tether now holds 13.3% of the company — the single largest position in the register — and has been growing it at a pace that is hard to ignore heading into a print.
Analysts have followed. Canaccord Genuity upgraded to Buy on April 29, just days before today's earnings, maintaining its $5.00 target. HC Wainwright reiterated Buy the day before with a $6.75 target. Both targets sit well above the current price of $3.52, pointing to 40–90% implied upside if the buy thesis plays out. The bull case rests on the ramp at Borborema, sustained high gold prices (realised at roughly $3,279 per ounce in the last reported quarter, up 40% year-on-year), and growing royalty cash flows. The bear case is simpler: revenue of $3.8 million last quarter came with a net loss of $0.8 million, and persistent unprofitability despite rising gold prices raises questions about the scalability of the model. The factor scores capture the ambiguity — EPS forward growth ranks in the 95th percentile, and EPS surprise history ranks at the 89th, yet the EV/EBIT factor sits at just the 1st percentile, reflecting an expensive valuation on current earnings.
Short interest is modest and not a driving factor here. At 4.5% of the free float, it drifted lower over the past month, falling nearly 5%. Borrowing costs have eased sharply — down 35% on the week to 1.1% — and availability remains comfortable with lending pool utilisation at roughly 23%. Options positioning tilts constructively: the put/call ratio at 0.39 runs below its 20-day average of 0.41, and its z-score of -1.3 points to slightly more call-side interest than usual. Past earnings reactions have been sharp in both directions — the March print saw the stock fall 12% in a single session — which adds weight to the setup even if positioning itself looks relaxed.
Today's print is ultimately a test of whether accelerating royalty cash flows from Côté Gold and Vares can begin closing the gap between gold-price tailwinds and bottom-line profitability.
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