Excelerate Energy heads into its Q1 2026 earnings today with short sellers having materially increased their bets — the standout data point heading into the print.
Short interest has climbed roughly 55% over the past six weeks, rising from about 1.4 million shares in late March to 2.2 million shares as of May 5 — equivalent to 6.9% of the free float. That build accelerated sharply around April 10, when shorts jumped from 1.5 million to nearly 2.0 million shares in a single session. Days to cover are 5.3 based on official FINRA data, meaning any squeeze would require significant volume to unwind. Despite the accumulating short interest, borrow conditions remain relaxed: cost to borrow is just 0.50%, and availability is wide — utilization is running at only 7.8%, a fraction of its 52-week peak of 22.6%. There is no lending constraint that would mechanically force shorts to cover.
Options positioning has also tilted more defensive into today's report. The put/call ratio has climbed to 1.22, above its 20-day average of 1.06 — not an extreme reading, but consistent with the broader cautious tone. The move is notable because the PCR was running below 0.80 through most of April before shifting higher around the 17th. The stock itself closed at $34.34 on Wednesday, down 3.4% on the day but up 2.6% on the week and 4.9% over the past month, leaving it roughly in the middle of the recent trading range.
The bull and bear divide centres on visibility versus valuation. Bulls can point to an impressive forward earnings growth profile — the 12-month forward EPS estimate growth ranks in the 95th percentile of the universe — and a dividend score in the 98th percentile, signalling both yield and consistency. The consensus remains a buy with six buy-rated analysts, and targets clustered in the $39–$41 range imply meaningful upside from current levels. Morgan Stanley moved to the sidelines in late April, trimming its target modestly to $40 while holding an Equal-Weight rating — the most recent bellwether action, and a mild note of caution from a firm that had only upgraded EE to Equal-Weight last November. Bears, by contrast, are pointing to a stock that has re-rated considerably: the P/E has expanded 1.3 points over the past month to 14.4x, and the P/B has climbed to 3.5x. The last earnings print, in late February, saw the stock fall 6.2% on the day and 16.5% over the following five trading sessions — a pattern that likely explains some of the recent short accumulation.
Ownership is largely stable, though FMR (Fidelity) added 482,000 shares in the most recent reporting period and Wellington Management added 719,000 — both meaningful inflows relative to total institutional ownership. Against that, a cluster of insiders — including the CFO, General Counsel, and Chief Commercial Officer — all sold shares at the end of March, following another wave of insider selling in early March at prices closer to $38.50. The selling is at small scale and low significance scores, but the breadth across the leadership team heading into earnings is a detail worth noting.
Today's print will test whether EE's LNG infrastructure growth story can justify a valuation that has expanded through a difficult macro environment — and whether the forward EPS optimism priced in by bulls can hold up against the reaction pattern that followed the last quarter.
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