AMPX Bears Test a Fresh-Money Rally
Amprius Technologies heads into its Q1 2026 print with short sellers sitting on their largest position in months, even as the stock has staged a sharp pre-earnings run.
Short interest has climbed 28% over the past month to 17.1% of the free float — a material and growing bet against the company. That climb accelerated after April 23, when shorts added roughly 3.4 million shares in a single session, pushing the total past 22 million. Despite the elevated short position, borrow conditions remain relaxed. The cost to borrow hovers near 0.5% annualised, and availability is wide, meaning new shorts face no meaningful squeeze friction today. The ORTEX short score has drifted up to 61.7, ranking in just the 6th percentile of the universe — a sign that short-side conviction has been building steadily. Options positioning has also shifted more defensive over the month. The put/call ratio has climbed to 0.59, above its 20-day average of 0.52 and at its highest level of the past year, though at just over one standard deviation above the mean, the hedging demand is elevated but not extreme.
That cautious short-side setup sits against a stock that has genuinely moved. AMPX is up 39% over the past month and 171% year-to-date, closing at $22.19 — well above the consensus analyst price target of $19.75. After the last major catalyst in early March, analysts at B. Riley, Craig-Hallum, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Roth Capital all raised targets into the $20–$22 range. Every covering analyst maintains a Buy or Overweight rating. The bull case rests on accelerating SiCore battery demand, 93 customers in the latest quarter including 43 new wins, and a margin trajectory the company projects improving from roughly 15% in 2026 to 25–27% by 2028. Bears point to persistent net losses — $6.4 million this quarter, equivalent to $0.05 per share — and question whether the long-term revenue projections justify a price that has already outrun the Street's targets.
Institutional flows add texture. BlackRock added 1.37 million shares in the most recent filing period, bringing its stake to 6.4% of shares outstanding. Vanguard and State Street also added. On the other side, director Kang Sun sold approximately 1.5 million shares in early April at prices in the $15–$17 range, and director Wen Hsuan Hsieh sold more than 400,000 shares in mid-March near $18. The insider net figure across 90 days is technically positive in share count, but the dollar-weighted picture is dominated by director selling into the run-up. Historical earnings reactions have been dramatic in both directions: the March 5 print triggered a 30% one-day gain that extended to 46% over five days, while the most recent prior event in late March saw a 14% single-day drop.
Tonight's print is therefore a test of whether the revenue beat story — Q1 sales already came in at $28.5 million against a $25.7 million estimate — can sustain a valuation that has run well past even the most optimistic analyst targets, with 17% of the float still positioned for a reversal.
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