Live Nation Entertainment reports Q1 2026 results on May 11 with the Street leaning more constructively than it has in months — but a meaningful short base and persistent CEO selling give bears a foothold heading into the print.
Analysts moved decisively in LYV's favour just days before the release. JP Morgan raised its target to $180 and Guggenheim lifted to $197, both on May 6, while Wells Fargo trimmed modestly to $199 — all three maintaining bullish ratings. Goldman Sachs had already moved to $190 in March. The consensus mean now sits at $184, roughly 11% above the current price of $165.75, and LYV scores at the 50th percentile on analyst recommendation differential — firmly in "hold your nose and buy" territory rather than crowded-optimist territory. The EPS surprise factor rank of 90th percentile signals a company that has beaten estimates with unusual consistency, which underpins the bull case: dominant market position in live entertainment, strong ticket sales leading indicators, and a credible path to material AOI growth by 2028.
The bear case centres less on the business than on execution risk and the capital structure. Antitrust scrutiny over Ticketmaster remains an overhang, and rising CAPEX alongside interest costs could constrain free cash flow — a genuine concern when the stock trades at an EV/EBITDA of 15.7x and a price-to-book north of 52x. Options positioning, notably, is not flashing alarm bells. The put/call ratio has eased to 0.999, well below its 20-day average of 1.09 and moving away from the more defensive readings seen through April — suggesting options traders have been reducing hedges, not adding them, as the print approaches.
The short interest picture adds a layer of nuance. At 9% of free float, the short base is material and has climbed roughly 13% over the past month — but the borrow market remains uncongested. Cost to borrow is running near just 0.55%, and availability remains loose, with the lending pool far from stressed. The ORTEX short score of 66.6 is elevated but has been drifting sideways for two weeks, suggesting short sellers are neither pressing aggressively nor covering in size. Insiders, meanwhile, have been consistent sellers: CEO Michael Rapino sold roughly $9.4m worth of stock across three transactions since February, and the company's aggregate insider net selling over the past 90 days totals approximately $15.2m. That cadence of executive sales — at prices between $141 and $164 — lands squarely below the current level and will be a point of scrutiny for investors assessing whether management conviction matches the bullish analyst chorus.
The May 11 print will test whether Live Nation's leading indicators — particularly deferred ticket revenue and sponsorship commitments — can validate the Street's re-rating, or whether the CEO's steady selling and the growing short base better reflect the near-term risk to the margin story.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open LYV on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
