Groupon Heads Into Print With a Third of Its Float Sold Short

Options traders, by contrast, are leaning bullish into the print. The put/call ratio of 0.39 is running below its 20-day average of 0.44, and near the lowest reading of the past year — the 52-week low is 0.36. That divergence from the short interest picture is the most interesting tension in the setup: a crowd of short sellers facing maximum borrow constraint, while the options market tilts toward calls rather than downside protection.

The analyst community is sharply split. Goldman Sachs maintained a Sell rating in March and cut its target from $17 to $10 — well below the current price of $15.46. Meanwhile, bulls at Northland Capital and Roth have targets north of $40, pointing to bookings growth and improving cost leverage as the key catalysts. The bear case centres on guidance that pointed to billings and revenue declines of 2.5–7.5%, rising marketing costs, and lingering refinancing risk. The stock has surged 28% over the past month, so the Goldman $10 target now sits 35% below the market — a gap that the print will either vindicate or widen further. The mean analyst target of $23 implies upside from current levels, though the consensus is dated to March and the spread between the most bullish ($44–47) and most bearish ($10) views is unusually wide.

Ownership adds one more layer. Pale Fire Capital holds nearly 25% of shares outstanding and has not changed its position recently. CEO Dusan Senkypl received a stock award in May and also holds shares directly — he added 17,250 shares in late April. The COO and CFO both received awards on May 1 and sold portions at $14.89 on the same day, consistent with routine award-and-sell patterns rather than a directional signal.

The print is therefore a test of whether the underlying business is stabilising fast enough to justify a stock that has doubled in two months — and whether a record-short, fully-tapped borrow market becomes a problem for the bears if the numbers surprise.