PubMatic heads into tonight's Q1 2026 results with the stock up 20% in a month — and investors now asking whether the business has finally turned a corner.
The price recovery has been sharp. PUBM closed at $10.24 on Thursday, up roughly 5% on the week and 20% over the past month, after a dramatic February print where the stock surged 23% in a single session and added another 35% over the following five days. Options positioning has quietly eased into this release. The put/call ratio is running at 1.17, slightly below its 20-day average of 1.21 and well within normal territory — a z-score of -0.41 signals no meaningful hedging surge. Short interest tells a similarly calm story: bears hold roughly 4.8% of the float, a level that has been drifting lower all month, down from above 5% in early April. Borrow is essentially free at 0.47% annualised, and availability remains ample. There is no squeeze pressure, no defensive options pile-up — just a stock that has moved hard into the print with limited hedging activity to show for it.
The bull case rests on structural momentum in newer revenue lines. Connected TV revenue grew over 50% year-over-year in Q3 2025, live sports revenue leapt 150% quarter-on-quarter, and commerce media — now roughly 10% of total sales — expanded 80% year-over-year. The 90-day forward EPS momentum score has risen to the 99th percentile, suggesting estimate revisions have turned sharply positive. The analyst community broadly agrees: consensus is Buy, and Rosenblatt's Barton Crockett has maintained a $21 target through recent check-ins in April. Bears point to the underlying revenue trajectory with more scepticism. Q3 2025 revenue was down roughly 5% year-over-year, hurt by a legacy DSP partner relationship and political spend rolling off. The Q1 consensus estimate implies around $60 million in revenue — breakeven territory on EBITDA — and a net loss of roughly $15.7 million. At an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.3x on trailing figures and a PE of 34.5x, the stock requires a clear path back to revenue growth to justify the recent rerating.
One institutional detail is worth noting. CEO Rajeev Goel sold 44,000 shares on April 27 at $9.78, and a further 44,000 shares on April 13 at $8.65. The CFO and other C-suite names sold on April 6. These look like scheduled sales rather than a single directional call, but the timing — into a rising stock ahead of earnings — means the market will watch carefully. Centerbook Partners added 595,000 shares in Q1, a meaningful new position that partially offsets the insider supply.
Tonight's print is ultimately less about whether CTV and commerce media are growing, and more about whether those high-growth verticals are now large enough to offset legacy DSP headwinds at the total revenue line.
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