Affirm Holdings heads into its Q3 2026 earnings print today with options traders leaning bullish — yet short sellers have spent the past six weeks quietly adding to their positions.
The options market is the more striking signal. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.85, more than 1.5 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.98. That's the most call-heavy posture in months, and it follows a sharp re-rating in the stock — up 39% over the past month to $67.36, with further gains of nearly 5% on the week. Borrow conditions give no indication of squeeze pressure: cost to borrow remains negligible at 0.45% APR, and availability is ample. Shares available to lend far exceed what is currently borrowed, meaning any short seller wanting to add exposure faces virtually no friction.
The short interest picture, however, deserves a closer look. At 6.7% of the free float, short interest is meaningful — and it has climbed roughly 17% over the past month, from around 16.4 million to 19.4 million shares. That accumulation has run in parallel with the stock's 39% rally, suggesting bears have been pressing into strength rather than covering. The ORTEX short score of 46 is moderate, not extreme, and days to cover sit at 3.5 — so this is a contested position, not a crowded one. The structure is unusual: bulls are pushing the stock higher through calls while shorts are methodically building exposure behind them.
Analyst opinion is constructive but quietly softening around the edges. The consensus remains firmly at Buy, with 18 buy-rated analysts and an average target well above the current price. Truist lifted its target to $75 late last month, and Cantor Fitzgerald moved to $80. But Evercore ISI trimmed its target from $95 to $90, and Citizens cut from $105 to $85, keeping their positive ratings while acknowledging some caution on valuation. The bull case rests on Affirm's BNPL leadership, expanding partnerships with Amazon and Shopify, and international growth in Canada and the UK. Bears point to revenue concentration in interest-bearing loans and execution risk around the company's pending industrial loan charter application. The price-to-earnings multiple has expanded by roughly 4.5 points over the past 30 days, compressing the margin for error on the print.
One institutional detail is worth noting. The prior earnings event — Q2 results released in February — produced an 8.3% one-day drop and a 19.9% five-day loss. That reaction came after a quarter where guidance disappointed. BlackRock and Fidelity have both added to positions in recent months, and founder Max Levchin holds more than 8% of shares outstanding. The earnings report tonight will test whether the stock's 39% recovery since that February sell-off is backed by an acceleration in gross merchandise volume and a cleaner path to margin expansion — or whether it has run ahead of delivery.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open AFRM on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
