SEG heads into Monday's Q1 2026 earnings report carrying a short score of 70 — elevated, but loosening rather than building.
Short sellers are modestly retreating. Short interest has fallen about 10% over the past month to 6% of the free float, pulling back from a peak around 6.7% in early April. Borrow conditions tell the same story: the cost to borrow has dropped sharply — down more than 40% over 30 days to just 0.49% — and availability is generous at roughly 357% of short interest, meaning supply in the lending market is ample. Availability has been drifting back toward looser levels after tightening somewhat in April. Options positioning has also shifted, with the put/call ratio now at 0.94 — actually below its 20-day average of 1.08. That is a more constructive read than the heavily put-weighted positioning seen in March and early April, when the ratio ran close to 1.5.
The single most striking feature of SEG's ownership structure is Pershing Square Capital Management sitting with 39% of shares — a concentration that would dwarf any short-side thesis and means Bill Ackman's firm effectively controls the narrative around the stock. The next largest holders (Kahn Brothers, Rubric Capital, and Dimensional) each hold between 4% and 4.6%, with BlackRock and Vanguard adding another 4% combined. Gate City Capital and Peapod Lane both appear to have built positions entirely within the last reporting cycle, adding fresh institutional interest below $300 million in market cap. Insider activity has run consistently negative: the CFO has sold three separate tranches over the past year, most recently in early April, though the values involved ($106k at last) are modest enough to read as routine compensation sales rather than conviction exits.
The analyst debate is thin — Jones Trading is the only firm with a published view, and Matthew Erdner trimmed his target yesterday from $30 to $27 while keeping a Buy rating, leaving implied upside of around 21% from the current $22.24 close. That target cut aligns with a stock that has added just 1% over the past month despite a small recovery from the April lows. EPS surprise ranks in the 96th percentile historically, a strong track record of beating estimates that the market will weigh against a previous earnings print that produced only a modest 0.9% decline the following day.
The print will test whether Seaport's entertainment and hospitality assets are generating enough operational momentum to justify Pershing Square's concentrated commitment — and whether this quarter's beat record holds.
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