TLK — PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia's ADR — reports its next earnings on May 13 with short sellers quietly unwinding positions and the borrow market showing no real stress.
The short-selling picture has grown markedly calmer. Shares short have fallen roughly 12% over the past month, dropping to around 2.34 million. That unwind has been steady and consistent, without any sharp single-session reversal, which suggests deliberate covering rather than a squeeze. Borrow costs reflect the same lack of urgency: the cost to borrow has eased to 0.52% annualised, down nearly 18% on the week and about 18% lower than a month ago. Availability in the lending pool remains loose, with borrow demand well below its 52-week peak — a stark contrast to earlier in the year when utilisation reached 84%. The ORTEX short score has also pulled back, moving from above 47 in late April to 42.6 now, reinforcing the picture of a short base that is shrinking rather than building into the print.
The factor score backdrop gives the bulls something to point to, even if the stock's recent price action is mixed. Forward EPS growth expectations rank in the 79th percentile, and the dividend score sits at 83 — both signals that income and growth-oriented investors have reasons to stay engaged. The analyst recommendation divergence ranks in the 91st percentile, suggesting the street may be underweight relative to what fundamentals imply. Against that, EPS momentum over both 30 and 90 days is middling at the 39th percentile, and EPS surprise history ranks only at the 43rd — meaning TLK has not been a consistent beat-and-raise story. Analyst data is too dated to be actionable here: the most recent coverage from B of A Securities dates to September 2023, and the mean price target of $34.75 reflects data from late 2022, making it unreliable relative to the current $17.16 ADR price.
One structural detail worth noting is the ownership profile. PT Danantara Asset Management — the Indonesian state vehicle — holds 51.6% of shares. That concentration limits the true free float and shapes how the market reacts to quarterly results. Western institutional holders including Vanguard, JP Morgan Asset Management, and Capital Research have been modestly adding shares in recent filings, with Norges Bank adding over 74 million shares as of year-end 2025 — a meaningful increment from a sovereign wealth fund with a long-term mandate.
On recent price action, the stock lost 7.3% across the past month before recovering 3.1% this week to close at $17.16. The last four earnings events have produced muted one-day moves — the most recent on April 24 saw a -2.2% reaction, and none of the prior prints triggered a five-day move beyond 5%. The May 13 release will test whether the improving forward EPS outlook is sufficient to sustain the recent bounce — and whether the steady retreat in short interest reflects genuine fundamental re-rating or simply lighter positioning ahead of a print that has historically landed without drama.
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