3M heads into its May 12 earnings report with analysts firmly split on whether the industrial giant's restructuring story still holds at current prices.
The debate on the Street is the most compelling angle here. Bulls point to genuine operational momentum — adjusted operating margins hitting 24.4% in Q3 2025 and organic sales growth tracking at 3.2%, both beating consensus. Barclays (Overweight, $185 target) and Wells Fargo (Overweight, $165) kept constructive ratings even after trimming targets in April, reflecting confidence in the margin expansion trajectory. Bears are less persuaded. RBC Capital maintained its Underperform stance with a $133 target — a full $10 below where the stock trades — citing Consumer segment weakness and decelerating industrial activity in China. Citigroup (Neutral, $166) has cut its target twice since January, from $181 to $166, a quiet but consistent signal that near-term estimates face pressure. The mean analyst target of $175.56 implies roughly 23% upside from Friday's $143.29 close, but that average masks the wide dispersion between the bulls at $185 and the Underperform camp at $133.
Short selling tells a relaxed story — positioning is thin, not charged. Short interest is just 1.6% of the free float, and while it climbed roughly 10% over the past week, it peaked above 9 million shares in early April before retreating to around 8.4 million. Borrow availability is extremely loose at well under 1% of the lending pool consumed, and cost to borrow is essentially negligible at 0.46% annualised. There is no meaningful short-squeeze dynamic in play. The RSI at 38.6 points to oversold territory after the stock drifted roughly flat over the past month, underperforming broader industrials.
Options traders have actually grown less defensive into the print, which stands out against the cautious analyst narrative. The put/call ratio has dropped to 1.29, about 1.3 standard deviations below its 20-day mean of 1.41 — meaning the options market is pricing in relatively less downside protection than it has for most of the past month. For context, the PCR hit its 52-week peak of 1.66 in late April, so recent weeks represent a clear unwind of defensive hedges. Insider activity offers little signal: the May 1 cluster of sells by the CEO and CTO followed routine equity award grants and look like standard tax-withholding transactions rather than a directional statement.
The May 12 print will ultimately test whether 3M's margin recovery story is durable enough to close the gap between $143 and a divided Street's target range — and whether the Consumer drag and China headwinds that concern the bears are transitory or structural.
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