Ecopetrol arrives at its May 12 Q1 2026 results in the middle of a sharp drawdown — the stock has dropped 14% over the past month to $12.64, with another 9% shed in the most recent week alone. That price action sets a low bar but also reflects genuine anxiety about where Colombia's national oil company sits in a weaker energy environment.
The most striking development heading into the print is the rapid retreat of short sellers. Short interest has collapsed by 45% over the past month — from roughly 13.8 million shares in early April to 7.5 million now. That exodus tracks almost exactly with the price decline, suggesting shorts are covering into weakness rather than pressing the bet. The borrow market reinforces this read: cost to borrow has eased to just 0.65% — down 37% over the past month — and availability remains ample in the lending pool. With the ORTEX short score at 46, squarely mid-range, there is no sign that short sellers are building a fresh campaign ahead of earnings. Positioning looks notably less charged than it did six weeks ago.
Options tell a similarly calm story, with one small wrinkle. The put/call ratio is 0.20, essentially in line with its 20-day average of 0.18 — options traders are not hedging aggressively into this print. Call flow continues to dominate despite the brutal price performance, which means the options market is either complacent about downside or actively positioned for a relief bounce off depressed levels. That divergence between the stock's trajectory and options sentiment is the sharpest tension in the current setup.
The analyst debate is more neutral than charged. UBS raised its price target to $13.50 on May 5 while maintaining a Neutral rating — a directional nod that the recent selloff has gone too far, though the target sits only fractionally above the current price. The consensus mean of $12.29 actually implies modest downside from current levels, an unusual configuration that reflects how sharply the stock has re-rated in recent weeks. The EV/EBITDA multiple, at roughly 3.7x on forward estimates, leaves valuation undemanding relative to peers, and the forward yield of 5.7% provides a cushion — though dividend history has been irregular and the most recent declared dividend dates to mid-2022. The Colombian state's 88.5% ownership stake also caps meaningful float-driven re-rating; BlackRock added over 63 million ADRs in the most recent reporting period, the largest external flow on record among institutional holders, but that remains a small slice of the structure overall.
Past reactions have been volatile and asymmetric. A March 5 release sent the stock up 11.5% on the day and 20% over the following five days; the most recent event on May 5 produced a 4.8% one-day drop. The print on Tuesday will test whether Ecopetrol's production volumes and free cash flow generation — estimated at nearly $8.9 billion operating cash flow against nearly $5.9 billion in capex — can support the dividend narrative at a time when crude prices are providing little cover.
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