JBS N.V. heads into its May 12 first-quarter earnings release with a stock that has pulled back sharply but a Street that remains firmly in the bull camp.
The analyst consensus tells a constructive story. Every active coverage rating is positive — JP Morgan reiterated Overweight with a fresh $20.50 target as recently as April 24, while Barclays lifted its target to $23 in late March, also maintaining Overweight. The analyst return potential sits at roughly 30% from current levels, and the factor score for analyst recommendation divergence ranks in the 97th percentile — meaning the bullish consensus around JBS is more uniformly positive than almost any other stock in the universe. Bulls point to a genuine profitability transformation: EBITDA margins have nearly doubled versus the 2008-2012 era, and brands like Just Bare and Pilgrim's have delivered multi-year volume acceleration. Bears counter with structural risks — livestock disease outbreaks can cripple a protein supply chain quickly, and the company carries meaningful exposure to commodity price swings and currency volatility across its global operations.
The price action adds texture to that debate. JBS has shed 8.2% over the past month to close at $16.11, even as it recovered a modest 0.2% on the week. The stock is up 13% year-to-date, so the recent slide represents a partial give-back of gains made earlier in the year. Peers have been mixed: gained 7.4% on the week, while fell 8.7% — a split that underscores how much stock-specific factors rather than sector tailwinds are driving protein names into the reporting season.
Short interest offers a genuinely interesting data point. Estimated short shares peaked near 26 million in early April — around the time of peak tariff uncertainty — and have since fallen by more than 23% to roughly 20 million. That retreat in bearish positioning is notable: short sellers who piled in during the April turbulence have largely covered. Borrow conditions reinforce that picture. The cost to borrow is a minimal 0.58%, and availability in the lending pool is wide, meaning there is no meaningful squeeze dynamic at play. Options positioning points the same direction — the put/call ratio of 0.10 is near its lowest level of the past year, well below the 20-day average, indicating that demand for downside protection is thin rather than elevated.
The May 12 print will therefore test whether the recent profitability story holds at the revenue and margin line — and whether management's brand-led volume narrative can withstand a macro backdrop that has rattled the wider protein complex this spring.
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