Short sellers have been rebuilding positions in BH.A at an accelerating pace ahead of the company's May 11 earnings release — a notable move given how tightly controlled the stock's float actually is.
The most striking data point is the pace of short-interest growth. SI of free float has climbed back to 13.1% from around 9.3% at the start of April — a near-40% rise over the month. Shares short jumped a further 9% in a single session on May 7, pushing the one-week gain to 31%. That brings the reading back toward the mid-April peak of 14.6%, which itself was the highest level in the 30-day window. The borrow market, however, is not signalling distress: cost to borrow is running at just 1.66%, actually down nearly 40% over the month as the earlier tariff-panic spike faded. Availability is still relatively loose, with the lending pool nowhere near exhausted. The combination — rising shorts, falling borrow cost — points to fresh positioning rather than a squeeze dynamic.
What makes the short rebuild more pointed is the ownership structure. Biglari Capital LLC alone holds 69.8% of shares, leaving the tradable free float extremely thin. That structural feature amplifies every SI reading: 13% of free float represents a far smaller absolute number of shares than the headline looks, but it also means any directional move is harder to absorb. The ORTEX short score has moved from 45.5 on May 4 to 51.8 on May 7 — a steady grind higher that places the stock in the upper half of the universe but short of the extreme-pressure zone. Institutional holders beyond the controlling entity are limited; Dimensional Fund Advisors holds 4.2% and BlackRock 1.8%, with no other external manager above 2%.
Past earnings reactions give bears some empirical backing. The March 2026 print saw the stock fall 10.7% on the day and extend to a 16.4% loss over the following five sessions — the worst recent reaction on record. Before that, the November 2025 result produced a modest 0.8% decline on the day but a further 7.9% drift lower by day five. The lone exception in recent history was a flat first-day response in early March 2026, though even that settled 6.8% lower within a week. The valuation data available is outdated and unreliable for the current price, so multiples are not a useful input here. The earnings print on May 11 will test whether the fresh wave of shorting was calibrated correctly — or whether a cleaner result forces a rapid unwind in a very illiquid float.
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