Expedia enters the week after Q1 results with an awkward gap between what the market did and what short sellers did — the stock dropped nearly 9% on Thursday, but the bears had already started covering.
Short interest pulled back this week, a story that cuts against the post-earnings slide. At roughly 5.9% of free float, the short position is down about 4.7% week-on-week. That's a meaningful retreat from late-April levels, when short interest briefly nudged above 7.3 million shares. The borrow market reflects little urgency from either side: cost to borrow is just 0.51%, barely above a month ago despite a 14% weekly uptick. Availability remains loose, with utilization well under 10% and far below the 52-week high of 18%. Options traders added a touch of caution on Friday — the put/call ratio ticked up to 1.25, slightly above its 20-day average of 1.22 — but the z-score of 0.86 is well short of an extreme. None of this screams a crowded short thesis.
The analyst response to earnings was split, and the market landed closer to the sceptics. Neutral-rated names at UBS and Wells Fargo trimmed targets modestly — to $262 and $307 respectively — after the print. Piper Sandler, also Neutral, actually raised its target from $225 to $245, a rare upside move on the day. The lone bull in Friday's action was BTIG, reiterating its Buy at $330. The consensus reads Buy (14 buy ratings versus a smaller number of holds), with a mean price target around $286 — roughly 24% above the current $229.98. The Street's bull case rests on brand scale and margin expansion potential; the bear case points to Google's hotel search competition and a widening discount to peers. The PE sits at 12.3x and EV/EBITDA at 8.0x, both modest for a business with Expedia's footprint, and the EV/EBIT factor scores in the 67th percentile — not cheap, but not stretched.
The ownership picture offers one notable data point from this week. Goldman Sachs Asset Management added over 1.09 million shares in the most recently reported period — by far the largest single change among the top 15 holders — lifting its stake to roughly 1.6% of shares. Victory Capital also added 270,000 shares. That contrasts with Norges Bank and WindAcre, which trimmed materially in the prior quarterly window. JP Morgan Asset Management added 805,000 shares as well. Insider activity has been less directional: the CFO and CLO received routine awards in March and executed small sell-to-cover transactions, nothing that signals conviction in either direction at current levels.
Peer performance this week throws the EXPE drop into relief. BKNG also fell, down 2.2% on the week, keeping travel sector pressure company. ABNB was flat. The divergence suggests EXPE's move was earnings-specific rather than sector-wide. The RSI14 is now at 40.7 — not yet oversold but drifting in that direction — and the stock is down 18.8% year-to-date, a steeper drawdown than either of its main OTA peers.
The next scheduled event is the Q2 print on 17 June. Between now and then, the debate is whether the market's post-Q1 reaction was a fair reset or an overreaction, with Goldman's recent buying offering the counter-argument to the Friday slide.
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