Arbe Robotics heads into its May 20 Q1 results with short interest at a multi-month high and options traders leaning more defensive — a setup shaped by a choppy price recovery that has added 29% over the past month but still given back nearly 5% this week.
The most striking development in the lending market is the jump in short positions during late April. Shares short climbed from roughly 6.1 million at the start of April to 8.5 million by April 24 — an increase of nearly 40% in a month. That rebuild is the dominant positioning story right now, with SI now running at 8.6% of free float. Availability is far from tight at 514% of short interest, meaning the lending pool has plenty of supply and there is no mechanical squeeze pressure. Cost to borrow has actually eased — running near 5.9% after spending most of April above 7%. Shorts are adding positions, but doing so in a market where borrow remains cheap and accessible.
Options confirm the defensive tilt, though not dramatically. The put/call ratio has edged up to 0.047, about 1.4 standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.036 — the highest level in several weeks. That points to modestly heavier demand for downside protection heading into the earnings date. For context, the 52-week high on the PCR was 0.23, so even at its current elevation, options positioning is nowhere near extreme territory. The signal here is caution, not alarm.
The Street remains nominally constructive, with two buy ratings and a consensus target around $2.38 against a closing price of $0.80 — implying significant upside on paper. However, the most recent analyst action worth noting came from Canaccord Genuity in late February, when the firm cut its target from $1.75 to $1.25 after the last earnings print. That move followed a brutal session on February 26, when the stock fell more than 20% on results. The bull case rests on Arbe's radar technology platform and its push into Chinese and non-automotive markets. The bear case centres on delays in OEM adoption, margin pressure as the company approaches series production, and execution risk following a recent CEO transition. The ORTEX short score of 59 sits in the moderate range and has actually eased from a peak near 68 at the end of April, when availability was much tighter.
On the institutional side, Alyeska Investment Group added over 5 million shares in the most recent reported period, making it the second-largest disclosed holder with a 5.3% stake. AWM Investment Company also added nearly 2 million shares. Those are meaningful additions for a stock with a market cap just under $100 million, and they represent the clearest institutional signal of conviction currently visible in the ownership data.
Earnings history adds important context ahead of the May 20 print. The February report produced a single-day drop of 20% and a five-day loss of nearly the same magnitude — the clearest data point available on what a miss means for this stock at current valuations. The upcoming print will test whether the institutional buying that came through in Q1 is vindicated, and whether the rebuild in short positions reflects a replay of pre-February caution or something more structural around the company's revenue trajectory.
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