Stardust Power heads into its May 14 earnings event with a freshly announced dilution and short sellers quietly unwinding — a combination that frames the week's tension cleanly.
The most immediate catalyst is the $5 million at-the-market equity offering disclosed on May 8. For a micro-cap with a market cap just under $24 million, a $5M ATM represents meaningful dilution potential. That news landed as the stock was already down nearly 12% on the week to $2.40, extending a one-month slide of over 10%. The price action reflects the weight of the raise rather than any new fundamental deterioration — though for a pre-revenue lithium refinery developer, the line between the two is thin.
Short positioning tells a more nuanced story this week. Short interest has retreated sharply — down 15% over seven days to 5.6% of the free float, pulling back from a peak above 8% in late April. The withdrawal of shorts accelerated through the week, with estimated shares short falling from roughly 804,000 on April 24 to below 549,000 by May 7. The borrow market, however, remains tight. Availability is just 18% of outstanding short interest — meaning for every share already borrowed, fewer than one-fifth of that quantity remains available to lend. Cost to borrow is running at 13.1% annually, up roughly 19% over the past month even as it dipped slightly this week. That combination — shorts leaving but borrow staying expensive and availability staying thin — signals that the retreat is a deliberate reduction, not a forced squeeze.
The ORTEX short score reinforces that reading. It has eased from a peak of 78.6 on April 24 to 71.2 now, but it remains elevated. Both the utilization rank and the short score rank sit in the bottom third of the universe (rank 3 out of 100 on each), marking this as one of the tighter borrow situations in the market despite the recent unwinding. The combined ORTEX score of 71.2 places SDST firmly in crowded-short territory relative to peers.
Analyst coverage is thin — just one buy rating on record, last updated in late April — so there is no meaningful Street consensus to lean on here. Valuation multiples are unhelpful for the same reason: EV/EBITDA is deeply negative at -3.3x, reflecting a company that has not yet generated operating income. Institutional ownership is heavily concentrated, with founder and chairman Roshan Pujari holding 17.2% of shares, CTO Pablo Cortegoso at 6.3%, and a second large holder, Zhang Dingjun, at 7.3%. That concentration means the float is thin, and the ATM raise — which will add to public supply — could loosen that tightness if new shareholders don't replicate the founder-level lock-up.
Insider activity from March 20 was largely procedural: the CEO, CFO, COO, and CTO all received share awards, with small tax-related sales alongside. Net insider activity over 90 days is modestly positive at roughly 27,000 shares, worth about $62,000 — a negligible signal given the award structure.
On the peer side, the week's divergence is notable. EOSE gained 24% on the week while FLUX dropped 21%. STEM fell nearly 15%, closer to SDST's own trajectory. The energy storage and clean-power cohort is behaving like a risk-on basket with wide dispersion — SDST is not uniquely weak, but it is not catching the upside either.
The pattern from the two most recent earnings events shows initial-day falls of 5–9%, with recoveries in the five days following. With earnings due May 14 and the ATM raise freshly in market, the next reading worth watching is how much of the open ATM capacity gets deployed before results land.
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