GLXY shorts hold firm as the stock roars 62% in a month

The borrow market is not signalling any squeeze pressure. Cost to borrow has oscillated in a tight band — peaking near 0.80% in late April and settling back to 0.62% — consistent with a liquid, unrestricted pool of lendable stock. Availability is holding around the mid-range of its recent history, far from the fully-tapped conditions that precede forced covering. Options traders have turned notably more bullish: the put/call ratio has dropped to 0.56, roughly 1.5 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.61, the lowest read in weeks. That is call demand dominating — investors buying upside exposure rather than hedging into a dip.

The Street remains broadly constructive, though the targets tell a wide story. Most recent analyst activity involves reiterations rather than upgrades. Citizens holds a $55 target, BTIG reiterates Buy at $50, and Canaccord Genuity maintains Buy at $50 — all well above the current price. Chardan Capital initiated coverage at Buy in late April with a more cautious $35 target. Cantor Fitzgerald's most recent reiteration keeps its Overweight at exactly $30 — the current market price — leaving essentially no upside in that model. The mean analyst target of $41.94 implies roughly 39% upside from current levels, though the spread across targets is wide enough to reflect genuine disagreement about how fast the data centre and crypto prime brokerage segments can scale. The bear case centres on the $216M net loss posted in Q1 and the inherent volatility of crypto-correlated earnings. The bull case rests on CLARITY Act passage, the Helios data centre coming online, and a new $200M buyback authorisation giving management a tangible floor tool.

Institutional ownership shows large passive flows alongside some active conviction. Vanguard added 4.5 million shares in Q1 and now holds 10.8% of shares outstanding. Capital Research built a near-10% stake — largely in one burst — as of year-end 2025. BlackRock added 1.96 million shares to its 3% position as recently as April 30. On the insider side, CEO Mike Novogratz and COO Erin Brown both sold shares at $20.59 on March 2 — before the bulk of the rally. Those sales look like routine plan-driven disposals given the timing and size, and they are now well below the current price.

Earnings are scheduled for May 28. The last quarterly print on April 28 produced a modest 1.5% next-day move but a 21% five-day gain — suggesting the market digested the Q1 numbers as a buying opportunity once the initial reaction settled. With the stock now 62% above its April lows and SI still building, the May 28 release becomes the clearest near-term focal point: whether shorts begin to cover ahead of the print — or press further into a name still posting nine-figure quarterly losses — is the positioning question worth watching.