BAP heads into its May 14 Q1 print with options markets sending one of the most bullish signals of the past year.
The shift in options positioning is striking. The put/call ratio has collapsed to 0.42 — nearly 1.8 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 1.00. That reading is close to the 52-week low of 0.41, meaning call buyers have almost completely displaced the put protection that dominated positioning through April. For most of last month, the PCR was running above 1.25; the pivot started around May 4. The stock has gained 2.7% in a single session and 2.6% on the week, closing at $330.50, though it remains down 2% over the past month — suggesting the options shift is forward-looking rather than simply tracking the price.
Short selling is a non-story here. Short interest is low at roughly 1.26 million shares, having edged down about 1.4% on the week and 1.2% in the last session after a modest 6% build over the prior month. Availability in the borrow market is ample — the borrow market shows no sign of squeeze pressure — and cost to borrow is negligible at 0.55% annualised. The ORTEX short score of 32.6 is unremarkable, sitting near the midpoint of its recent range.
Analysts frame a genuine valuation debate. The most recent move came from UBS on April 21, when it raised its price target sharply to $408 from $318, maintaining a Buy — the boldest positioning among the major sell-side names. Goldman Sachs, by contrast, raised its target to $330 back in February but stayed at Neutral, effectively flagging the stock as fairly valued at current levels. The consensus mean price target of $360 implies roughly 9% upside from current prices, keeping the balance tilted toward constructive. The EPS surprise factor score ranks in the 98th percentile — Credicorp has a strong track record of beating estimates — and the 90-day EPS momentum score sits in the 84th percentile, suggesting forecasts have been moving higher. The P/E multiple of 10.8x has contracted about 0.8 points over 30 days, giving bulls room to argue the valuation has reset to a more comfortable entry.
Among institutional holders, Baillie Gifford added 1.3 million shares in its most recent disclosure, a notable addition relative to its prior position. Capital Research built by nearly 567,000 shares. BlackRock added around 233,000. The pattern of active managers adding weight ahead of results adds texture to the bullish options tilt.
Latin American peers closed the week mixed. IFS gained 0.7% on the week while Brazilian names INTR fell 13.8% — underscoring the idiosyncratic nature of BAP's more defensive positioning within the region.
The print will test whether Credicorp's earnings momentum is as durable as the EPS-surprise track record implies, and whether the fee income and credit quality mix can justify the re-rating that UBS — and now the options market — appear to be pricing in.
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