Mizuho Financial Group heads into its May 15 earnings with options traders leaning bullishly and short sellers in full retreat — a rare alignment for a Japanese megabank's US-listed ADR.
The options market is the clearest tell. The put/call ratio has collapsed to just 0.40, well below its 20-day average of 0.63, and the most call-heavy reading in months. The contrast with six weeks ago is stark: through late March and into mid-April, PCR was running above 1.25 — near its 52-week peak of 1.28 — reflecting deep defensive positioning during the tariff-shock volatility. That defensive hedge has now been almost entirely unwound, with call activity dominating the book heading into the print.
Short sellers have moved in the same direction, though the picture is more nuanced. Estimated short interest peaked above 6 million shares in early April and has since dropped nearly 30% to around 4.3 million. The monthly decline is around 19%. Cost to borrow has fallen sharply too — from a spike above 12% at the end of March, it has eased to roughly 1.1%, consistent with a broadly relaxed lending environment. Availability remains healthy, and with days-to-cover at just over two days, there is no meaningful squeeze dynamic in play. The ORTEX short score has nonetheless ticked up to 42.4 from the low 37s over the past fortnight, as the recent week-on-week increase in short shares (up ~11%) suggests some fresh positioning is beginning to re-enter at current levels.
The fundamental backdrop offers limited fresh context — Mizuho's analyst coverage data on this ADR is significantly stale and cannot be relied upon. What the market does have to work with is the stock's recent price recovery: MFG has risen 5.3% over the past month to $8.69, recovering ground after the April sell-off that drove heavy short positioning and elevated borrow costs. Institutionally, BlackRock added 1.7 million shares in the most recent reporting period to hold 7.7% of shares, and Nomura Asset Management added over 4.4 million shares to 4.6%. Both represent meaningful conviction additions at a time when other global bank stocks were under pressure.
The earnings report on May 15 will test whether that institutional confidence and the options market's bullish tilt are anchored in Mizuho's core net interest income and fee trends — or whether the re-rating since April's lows has already captured whatever upside the print can deliver.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open MFG on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
