FIG heads into its May 14 earnings debut as a publicly-traded company with short sellers holding their ground — even as the stock recovers from a rough month.
The borrow market tells the more striking story. Availability has tightened sharply: the lending pool is now almost fully committed, with shares on loan running at roughly 96% of what is available to borrow — near the 52-week maximum of 100%. That tightness follows a 77% surge in short interest over the past month alone, lifting the SI % of FF to 12.7%. The jump was concentrated in the second half of April, when estimated short shares rose from around 30 million to over 55 million in a matter of weeks. Despite that build, the cost to borrow has stayed surprisingly low at 0.72% — down roughly 25% on the week — suggesting new supply entered the lending pool even as demand climbed. Days to cover is 3.7. The ORTEX short score of 70.6 ranks in the 6th percentile of the universe for short-side pressure, a reading that has barely moved over the past ten sessions.
Options positioning is not adding much heat. The put/call ratio is 0.63, only marginally above its 20-day average of 0.60 and less than one standard deviation from the mean. After a period of stronger put demand in late April, options traders appear to have pulled back from outright bearish bets. The stock bounced 10% on the week to $20.66, though it remains about 2.5% below where it was a month ago — and down 45% from its IPO-era peak. Among correlated peers, the past week has been uneven: fell nearly 18%, dropped 8%, while gained 6%. 's relative resilience looks notable against that backdrop.
The bull case centres on product momentum. AI investments — led by Figma Make — have driven a meaningful uptick in weekly active users, and bulls point to a revenue beat last quarter alongside operating income that surprised to the upside. An analyst return potential of nearly 95% reflects significant distance between the current price and the mean price target, though it is worth noting the analyst consensus of "hold" covers all nine active ratings. The most recent analyst actions, predominantly from February following last quarter's print, saw across-the-board target cuts: RBC trimmed to $31, Stifel to $30, and Wells Fargo — the lone Overweight — to $42. Those targets were set before the stock's recent recovery to $20.66, and the gap between even the more cautious targets and the current price gives bulls room to argue the stock has overshot to the downside. Bears are watching gross margin erosion tied to AI infrastructure costs. Revenue is estimated near $1.37 billion with an EV/EBITDA around 66x on reported figures — premium multiples that leave little room for guidance disappointment.
The insider picture is consistent but routine. Five executives — including the CFO and CTO — sold shares on May 1 at $17.70, part of what appears to be a scheduled programme. The net 90-day balance is a positive 3.8 million shares, though that figure is dominated by the CEO Dylan Field, who added 1.9 million shares as recently as March. No insider bought at current levels. The print on May 14 is therefore less about the headline revenue number and more about whether Figma can demonstrate that AI-related cost pressures are temporary rather than structural — and whether management's guidance is enough to justify any multiple above the current low-30s price targets that most of the Street is working with.
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