ALCO reports its second-quarter 2026 results today with bears on the back foot — short sellers have spent the past six weeks steadily covering positions.
Short interest has fallen roughly 18% over the past month, dropping to 1.8% of the free float. Days to cover clocks in at 11 days on FINRA's official count, though the direction of travel is clear: position sizes are shrinking. Borrow conditions reinforce that picture. Cost to borrow has eased sharply — down 32% on the week to just 0.35% — the lowest level in the 30-day window. Availability is ample, with the lending pool showing no signs of tightening. The short score, at 41.9, sits in the lower half of ORTEX's range, consistent with a market that views ALCO as a relatively low-pressure short situation. Together, these signals point to a positioning backdrop where conviction on the bear side has quietly eroded.
The stock itself has lagged into the print, down 8% over the past month to $40.65, despite stabilising in the final few days. Correlated peers have also pulled back — DOLE fell 1.7% on the week, CVGW dropped 2.3%, and slid more than 5%. The weakness in ALCO is therefore largely a sector move rather than company-specific selling pressure, which somewhat softens its signal ahead of the release.
Fundamentals for a Florida citrus and agriculture operation like Alico are rarely straightforward. Consensus estimates point to a net loss of $0.43 per share on revenue of around $7 million for the period, with EBITDA of approximately $13.8 million — reflecting the heavy depreciation load ($14.9 million) typical of land-rich agricultural businesses. Operating cash flow sits near $5.6 million, which underscores that the headline net loss overstates cash deterioration. EV/EBITDA from the valuation data has expanded notably over the past 30 days. On analyst coverage, the picture is thin: the most recent action from a named firm dates to a Freedom Broker initiation in September 2025 at a Buy with a $44 target — a price only 9% above the current level at $40.65. Earlier data from Roth Capital is too dated to be meaningful. The ownership base leans concentrated, with Gate City Capital Management holding nearly 17% of shares — a stake that has grown modestly — and BlackRock adding around 27,000 shares as of end-April.
Today's print is less about whether Alico is profitable quarter-to-quarter and more about how the company frames its grove monetisation and land strategy against a backdrop of falling short interest, rising EV/EBITDA, and a stock that has still not recovered its early-year highs.
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