MicroVision heads into its Q1 2026 print with short sellers retreating — and the stock gaining ground — after a bruising winter.
The short positioning story is the central tension here. Bears still hold a significant stake: 20.3% of the free float is short, with an ORTEX short score of 89.8 out of 100 — placing it in the top decile of the universe for short conviction. Yet the direction of travel has shifted decisively. Short interest has fallen roughly 9% over the past month, from a peak near 69 million shares short in early April to around 62 million now. The borrow cost tells the same story: cost to borrow has more than halved since late March, dropping from near 34% to 16.1%. Availability remains tight enough to keep the squeeze narrative alive, but the lending market has loosened meaningfully. The stock has responded — up 9% on the week and 19% over the past month, closing at $0.73.
Options traders are the exception to the improving sentiment. Put demand has spiked to the highest level of the past year. The put/call ratio jumped to 0.1354 on May 8 and remained elevated at 0.1315 on May 11 — nearly three standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.064, the most defensive posture the options market has struck on this stock in 52 weeks. For a name where calls have overwhelmingly dominated the options flow for months, the sudden shift toward puts is notable.
The bull case rests on the LIDAR commercialisation path. MicroVision's MOVIA L sensor order, expanded production capacity, and broader technology roadmap give bulls a framework for growth. The company has also consistently beaten estimates, ranking in the 94th percentile on EPS surprise. On March 13, the CEO, Chairman, and two directors bought shares at $0.53 — a coordinated cluster of insider purchases that added nearly $235,000 combined. That was conviction buying at a discount to current levels. The bear case is harder to dismiss: the company continues to burn cash, revenue visibility is limited, and the most recent earnings event — the Q4 2025 release on March 4 — sent the stock down 30% on the day and 28.5% over the following five days. D. Boral Capital downgraded the name to Hold from Buy in the wake of that print. Amerx initiated at Hold just yesterday, May 11, ahead of tonight's release. Neither firm is a bellwether, but the consensus signal leans cautious.
Tonight's print tests whether MicroVision can offer a revenue or contract update credible enough to anchor the rally — and whether options traders hedging the downside were early or prescient.
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