IFRX has surged 150% in a month — and options traders are now the most defensive they've been all year ahead of Thursday's earnings.
The clearest signal into this print is in the options market. The put/call ratio has jumped to 0.20, nearly 2.8 standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.05 — close to the 52-week high of 0.26. That's a remarkable shift for a stock where put buying was essentially negligible just two weeks ago. The market is clearly reaching for downside protection after a move that took the stock from roughly $1 to $2.50. The stock gave back 3.1% on Monday even as close peers like ABSI and NBIX posted weekly gains of 20% and 16% respectively — a sign that some profit-taking has already begun.
The short side of the ledger, by contrast, looks relaxed rather than combative. Short interest runs at 2.9% of the free float — present, but not aggressive. Borrow availability is ample at 429% of short interest, meaning there is roughly four times as much stock available to lend as is currently borrowed. Cost to borrow is a modest 8%, and has barely moved over the past month. Nothing in the lending market signals a squeeze setup or unusually crowded short thesis.
The bull case is driven by clinical optionality. HC Wainwright raised its target from $6 to $8 on Monday — the same day Cantor Fitzgerald doubled its target from $2 to $4, both maintaining positive ratings. Guggenheim reiterated its Buy and held its $14 target in late April. The common thread is izicopan, InflaRx's C5aR inhibitor, which bulls argue carries a differentiated pharmacological profile in autoimmune indications including IgA Nephropathy and hidradenitis suppurativa. Bears push back on thin clinical data — Leerink downgraded to Market Perform in December and cut its target to $2, citing lack of confidence ahead of key readouts. The company is pre-revenue in any meaningful sense, burning roughly $29M in operating cash last year, though it holds a net cash position of approximately $183M — providing a meaningful runway cushion that partially underpins the recent re-rating.
The May 15 print will test whether the 150% monthly rally reflects a genuine recalibration of trial prospects or simply a liquidity-driven overshoot into a catalyst window where the clinical data remains binary.
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