Replimune Group heads into its May 15 earnings with nearly a quarter of its free float sold short — a position that has been building quietly since a devastating regulatory setback in April.
Short interest commands the story here. At 24.9% of the free float, the bearish position is substantial and has grown roughly 11% over the past month. Bears have been adding steadily since mid-April, lifting short shares from around 17 million to nearly 19.5 million. Yet the borrow market tells a less dramatic tale: cost to borrow is just 0.68%, and while that figure has jumped roughly 39% on the week, the absolute level remains negligible — barely a rounding error for an established short thesis. Availability has loosened significantly from its 52-week peak, sitting well below its tightest readings of the year, which means new shorts face little friction entering the position. The ORTEX short score of 62.7 is elevated but has actually eased modestly from its recent highs above 67, suggesting the pace of bearish accumulation may be decelerating ahead of the print.
Options traders, meanwhile, are sending the opposite signal. The put/call ratio has collapsed to 0.20 — more than 1.4 standard deviations below the 20-day average of 0.33 — touching near its 52-week low of 0.16. That is a strikingly call-heavy posture for a stock sitting 58% below where it started the year. It may reflect speculative positioning around the print or short sellers hedging via calls, but whichever way it is read, the options market is not braced for further deterioration. The stock added 23% on the week to $3.74 even after an 8% slide on Monday, leaving it in the unusual position of being a recent mover to the upside while the monthly chart still shows a 21% loss.
The analyst community delivered a coordinated verdict on April 13, when five firms simultaneously downgraded the stock following a second Complete Response Letter from the FDA for RP1 in combination with nivolumab. JP Morgan moved to Underweight, while Leerink Partners slashed its target from $11 to $2 and Jefferies cut from $13 to $2 — both dropping to Hold from Buy. Wedbush lowered its target from $19 to $2 in the same session. The consensus now sits at a cautious hold with a mean target of $3.50, though those targets were struck in April and the stock has traded both sides of that level since. The bear case centres on the removal of the Accelerated Approval pathway for RP1 and the prospect of cash constraints into Q2 2027. Bulls point to the company's net cash position of approximately $119 million, the historical precedent of T-vec achieving approval as an oncolytic virus, and a forward EPS improvement score ranking in the 89th percentile — suggesting analysts expect the loss profile to narrow even if the path to revenue remains unclear.
Institutional positioning adds an interesting layer. Baker Bros. Advisors holds 13.4% of shares and did not reduce in the last reporting period, while FMR (Fidelity) added over 1.6 million shares through April. State Street added nearly 770,000 shares. That passive and active accumulation at these price levels sits in direct tension with short interest at a 12-month high. Thursday's print — covering cash runway, any update on RP1's regulatory path, and commentary on the pipeline beyond RP1 — will determine which side of that standoff holds.
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