TMC heads into its May 14 results with the options market heavily skewed toward the bullish side — an unusual alignment given that short sellers have been quietly piling in over the past month.
The options setup is the standout signal. Call demand has overwhelmed puts, pushing the put/call ratio to 0.15 — near the lowest reading of the past year (52-week low: 0.10). That is more than one standard deviation below its 20-day average, signalling that option buyers are positioned for further upside rather than hedging against a down move. The stock has given them reason for optimism: TMC has climbed 36% over the past month and added nearly 14% in the past week alone, closing at $5.91. The recent momentum has been sharp enough to make the options skew look directional rather than speculative.
Short interest tells a more complicated story. Bears have quietly added exposure — short positions rose nearly 23% over the past month, reaching 7.6% of the free float, a level meaningful enough to watch. Days to cover stand at 6.8, meaning a sustained rally would take short sellers more than a week of average trading volume to fully exit. The borrow market, however, is not under stress. Cost to borrow is a modest 0.51% APR — well off its recent highs — and availability has eased materially from a tighter posture earlier in the year. That combination points to a short base that is present and growing, but not yet under squeeze pressure.
Analyst conviction has held, and nudged higher recently. Wedbush raised its target from $8 to $10 on May 4, maintaining its Outperform rating — a positive revision coming just days before the print. HC Wainwright carries a Buy with an $11.75 target, implying meaningful upside from current levels. The bull case centres on TMC's positioning within critical metal supply chains, including its entry into the Defence Industrial Base Consortium and a feasibility partnership with Mariana Minerals. Bears flag the fundamental challenge: deep-sea mining remains capital-intensive, revenue-light in the near term, and exposed to regulatory risk. The ORTEX short score of 71.7 — in the top percentile of the entire universe on short score rank — reflects how seriously the market is taking the bear case, even as option buyers look the other way.
Past earnings prints have not been kind. After each of the three most recent results, the stock fell — down 11%, 7%, and 10% on the following session, with a five-day loss of 18.5% after the March 2026 event. The May 14 report is therefore less a test of near-term revenue and more a test of whether regulatory progress and the partnership pipeline can shift the narrative enough to break that losing streak for post-earnings longs.
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