The lending pool for EWG — the iShares MSCI Germany ETF — has hit maximum stress. Every available share is now on loan. Cost to borrow has more than doubled in six weeks.
Availability has dropped to 0%. Every share in the lending pool is currently lent out, matching the 52-week extreme.
This isn't a gradual tightening. As recently as May 1, availability was relatively loose — utilization sat at just 45%. It crossed 100% within days. That kind of compression in under two weeks reflects an urgent, concentrated demand for borrows.
Cost to borrow tracks the stress closely. CTB stood at 3.87% on March 31. It now sits at 12.03%. That's a 151% rise in six weeks. The sharpest leg came in the past week alone — up 83% from 6.57% to 12.03%.
When availability is zero and CTB is still climbing, it means would-be short sellers are competing for the same finite pool of shares.
SI % FF now stands at 15.5% of free float — up 16.5% in a single week and up 38% over the past month. FINRA's fortnightly official print, dated April 30, confirmed 6.23 million shares short with 3.45 days to cover.
The short interest buildup preceded the borrow crunch. Positions were being added steadily through April. The lending market has only now caught up with that demand — and supply has run dry.
The ORTEX short score reached 73.8 on May 8, its highest point in the 10-day lookback window, and has risen consistently from 68.6 on May 1.
Several major holders trimmed in the most recently reported quarter. BlackRock cut its position by 1.54 million shares. Managed Account Advisors reduced by 489,000. Morgan Stanley trimmed by 367,000.
Against that, Flow Traders and Jane Street — both market makers — initiated new positions of 760,000 and 480,000 shares respectively. These are likely hedging-related flows tied to ETF arbitrage activity rather than directional bets, but they add to the shares-on-loan pool.
The put/call ratio sits at 1.96, below its 20-day mean of 2.12. The 52-week high was 3.65, hit in early April during peak macro anxiety. The PCR z-score is -0.44. Bearish options positioning remains elevated in absolute terms but has pulled back from its extremes.
What to watch: Whether CTB continues to climb from 12% — or whether short sellers begin covering, which would be the first signal that the borrow squeeze is forcing position unwinds rather than new entries.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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