Three distinct signals on MT are pointing the same direction. Short interest, cost to borrow, and options positioning have all shifted in the same week — against a backdrop of a 12.5% price surge.
Short sellers are adding positions even as the stock climbs. Shares short rose 14.7% over the past week to 3.23 million. That follows a 14.3% increase the week before. In roughly two weeks, short interest has grown by more than 25%.
The borrow market reflects the demand. Cost to borrow has jumped 62% in a week to 0.89%. A month ago it sat at 0.49%. Bears are paying nearly twice as much to hold their positions as they were in April.
The put/call ratio hit 0.77 on May 11. That is 2.4 standard deviations above the 20-day mean of 0.65. Options traders are buying protection at the fastest rate in weeks.
The 52-week high on PCR is 1.14, so there is room for further skew. But the pace of the move — from a quiet baseline to a Z-score above 2 in just days — stands out.
Borrow availability remains in normal territory for now. That means shorts are not being squeezed out of their positions. There is still room for the short base to grow before the lending market tightens materially.
The short score sits at 43.8 — up from 35.5 at the end of April. It ranks in the 93rd percentile on a short-score basis among peers. The score has risen steadily as the stock has rallied.
Wells Fargo raised its price target to $61 on May 1. MT closed at $62.34 on May 11. The stock has already run through that target. JP Morgan downgraded to Underweight in March. Jefferies holds a Buy with a $73.20 target. Analysts are split, which may be amplifying two-way positioning activity.
Next earnings are scheduled for July 30.
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