ACH heads into its May 14 print battered — the stock dropped 18% in a single session on May 12 and has shed nearly 15% on the week, sitting at $3.20.
The most striking signal is in short positioning — and not in the expected direction. Short interest has actually been falling hard into the earnings date, down 27% from its early-April peak to 7.6% of the free float as of May 11. That exit by bears coincides with the sharp price drop, suggesting covering activity rather than fresh conviction either way. Borrow conditions reinforce the lack of squeeze pressure: the cost to borrow is a negligible 0.51% annually, and availability is generous — the lending pool is far from tight. The ORTEX short score has also been easing, pulling back from 63.5 on May 5 to 59.2 by May 11, confirming the short-seller retreat rather than accumulation.
Options positioning tells a different story. Demand for downside protection has spiked to its most extreme level in months — the put/call ratio hit 0.08 on May 12, nearly 2.6 standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 0.067. That is the highest defensive reading in recent memory for a name that typically trades with very little put interest. The reading is particularly notable because the absolute PCR level is still low — 0.08 means calls vastly outnumber puts — but the relative jump signals that options traders scrambled for protection into and after the price collapse.
The fundamental backdrop gives the debate some texture. Revenue is running around $2.6 billion, and EBITDA near $342 million gives an EV/EBITDA of roughly 5.6x — not expensive for the health care distribution sector. Net debt of $1.5 billion is the key bear concern: interest expense is running at $141 million annually against a normalized net income of just $30 million, leaving almost no room for error. The ORTEX value score has slipped sharply in recent days, dropping from around 59 to 49 as the price-driven re-rating works against the company. Growth and momentum scores have deteriorated through May, reflecting the price slide and weaker estimate revisions. One institutional standout: Coliseum Capital Management holds 17% of the company and has been a persistent buyer in prior periods, providing a floor of sorts for long-side conviction.
The print will test whether management can show that the cash generation — $231 million in operating cash flow — is durable enough to service the debt load and whether any guidance on margins justifies a stock now trading near three-year lows.
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