CNCK heads into its May 14 earnings report with the lending market sending mixed signals — borrow costs remain steep even as short sellers have quietly retreated.
Borrowing shares of Coincheck is still expensive, with the cost to borrow running at roughly 51% annualised. That is meaningfully elevated but well below the peak from mid-April, when the rate briefly surpassed 120%. Availability is moderate at around 81% of short interest — neither tight nor flush — suggesting the borrow market has loosened materially since the spring squeeze. The stock itself has been on the move, jumping 18% in a single session on May 12 and finishing at $2.06, extending its one-month gain to more than 21%. That rally follows a confirmed Q4 revenue print of $752 million, a 4.4% year-on-year increase, which appears to have triggered the move.
Short interest tells a less crowded story heading into the formal May 14 event. Estimated shares short have fallen around 25% over the past month, now representing roughly 2.2% of the free float — a level that is present but not extreme. The ORTEX short score of 64, while not negligible, has drifted slightly lower through the past week, consistent with some shorts trimming rather than pressing. Days to cover stands at 5.2 days based on recent FINRA data, which leaves a meaningful but not alarming short position outstanding.
The bull and bear debate for Coincheck centres on whether user growth can translate into durable per-user profitability. Bulls point to verified user growth of 16% in FY24 and 10% in FY25, along with healthy EBITDA margins during periods of active trading, and the company's NFT and broader marketplace expansion as additional revenue levers. Bears see a harder road ahead: gross profit per monthly user is projected to decline at a high single-digit rate in FY26, competitive pressure is compressing spreads, and the sequential revenue step-down from $902 million in Q3 to $752 million in Q4 underscores the volume-sensitivity of the model. Analyst coverage is sparse and largely dated — Compass Point initiated at Buy with a $5 target in January, while Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded to Neutral in August 2025, cutting its target from $9 to $6. With the stock now at $2.06, both targets sit well above the current price, though coverage depth is too thin to read strong consensus signal into either.
Ownership is heavily concentrated: parent Monex Group holds more than 83% of shares, which compresses the effective float and partly explains the sensitivity of borrow costs to even modest short interest. Institutional interest beyond Monex is thin, with Ghisallo Capital and Geode among those building small positions. The May 14 formal earnings event — following yesterday's revenue disclosure — will test whether the sequential revenue decline was a one-off or the start of the volume softening that bears have been flagging.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open CNCK on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
