Options traders are the most bullish they've been in two years. Short sellers are adding positions at their fastest pace in months. SPCE has both camps digging in — and earnings land tomorrow.
The put/call ratio hit 0.31 on May 12. That's a 2-year low. The 20-day average sits at 0.33, and the z-score of -2.34 puts current sentiment in the extreme bullish tail. Calls are dominating options flow by a wide margin. The 52-week high on the PCR was 1.15 — today's reading is less than a third of that level.
Bears aren't backing down. Short interest stands at 36.1% of free float as of May 11. That's up 14% in one week and 30% over the past month. More than one in three freely tradeable shares is currently sold short.
The borrow market is very tight. Availability has compressed significantly, with the 52-week peak at full utilisation (100%). Current conditions sit just below that level. The ORTEX short score is 77.2 — ranked in the 1st percentile for short pressure across covered stocks. Days-to-cover stands at 2.66 days per the most recent FINRA data.
One notable detail: cost to borrow has actually eased. It now sits at 9.99%, down from 22.6% in early April. That 56% one-month drop suggests more shares entered the lending pool even as demand from short sellers grew. It hasn't loosened the availability picture materially — but it's made shorting cheaper.
SPCE reports after the close on May 14. The stock has moved sharply on recent prints. The March 30 earnings release drove a 7.5% one-day move and a 36% five-day gain. The May 8 event produced a 16.3% one-day jump.
That history matters in context. Analysts are split. Jefferies maintains a Buy with a $5.00 target. Susquehanna is Neutral at $3.00. Morgan Stanley rates it Underweight at $2.30. The stock closed at $2.79 on May 12, down 4.5% on the day but up 13.9% on the week.
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