AAL Bears Circle as Short Interest Hits Five-Week High

Short sellers have sharply increased bets against AAL this week. Three distinct signals have aligned — rising short interest, elevated put buying, and a jump in borrow cost — as American Airlines heads toward its next earnings report on June 10.

Short Interest Jumps Back to April Highs

Short interest in AAL hit 12.4% of free float on May 12. That is the highest reading since April 8. In a single week, short interest rose 24%. The month-on-month increase is even steeper at 30.6%.

The move retraces a complete unwind. Short interest fell steadily from a peak of roughly 12.4% on April 8 all the way down to 8.9% by late April. It has now rebuilt entirely. That pattern — compress, recover, compress again — suggests renewed conviction from short sellers rather than a one-day spike.

Options Market Shifts Bearish in Tandem

The put-call ratio stands at 1.703. That is 2.1 standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 1.54. Put buying has climbed sharply over the past two sessions, with the PCR jumping from 1.49 on May 8 to 1.70 on May 12.

The reading is elevated but not extreme by historical standards. The 52-week high on the PCR is 2.41. There is room for further skew if sentiment continues to deteriorate.

Borrow Market Tightens

Cost to borrow rose 51.6% in the past week to 0.52%. In absolute terms this remains low — AAL is a liquid, large-float stock. Borrow availability is not stressed. But the directional move matters: when borrow cost rises in step with short interest growth, it confirms new positions are being opened, not just held.

Corroborating Context

Analysts have been mixed post-earnings. Jefferies and BMO both raised targets after the April 23 report — to $13 and $13.50 respectively — but kept cautious ratings (Hold and Market Perform). Susquehanna trimmed its target from $17 to $16. The consensus is still "buy," but the street is divided on the upside case.

EPS momentum over 30 days ranks at the 94th percentile. That is a standout positive. The 90-day EPS momentum tells a different story, however — it sits at just the 5th percentile. Insiders added to the complexity: the CFO, COO, Chief Legal Officer and Comptroller all sold shares on May 1 at $11.84. The stock has since recovered to $12.69.

Data Summary

• SI % FF: 12.4% (May 12), +24% week-on-week, +30.6% month-on-month
• Cost to borrow: 0.52%, +51.6% week-on-week
• Put-call ratio: 1.703 (z-score: +2.1 vs 20-day mean)
• Next earnings: June 10, 2026
• ORTEX short score: 51.1 (up from 47.7 a week ago)
• 30-day EPS momentum rank: 94th percentile